We’ve undergone a month of chaos in the 2024 Presidential election, but the fundamentals of the 2024 Senate remain tough to shake.
Of the 33 Senate seats up for grabs, only 11 are represented by Republicans while 22 belong to Democrats or Democratic-aligned Independents. Since Democrats are widely expected to lose the open seat in West Virginia being vacated by Joe Manchin, the party must win all 21 other contests or find a way to flip one of those 11 GOP seats.
When the Biden campaign was fading fast after the debate, this framework was particularly intimidating for Democrats, as Republicans began to dream of holding a strong Senate majority.
Now, of course, the national landscape has shifted while the battleground stays the same. As a result, it’s the perfect time to take stock of the ten most contested Senate contests – listed from least to most competitive – based on polling averages right now.
Maryland: Angela Alsobrooks vs Larry Hogan
DDHQ Forecast: Alsobrooks >99%, Hogan <1%
DDHQ Polling Average: Alsobrooks +8.3%
Few candidates stand to gain more from the shift of Biden to Harris than Maryland’s Angela Alsobrooks, since Gov. Hogan’s campaign depended on a very depressed Democratic base. Remember that African-Americans make up 32% of Maryland’s population, and they suddenly have the rare opportunity to vote for two Black women at the top of the ticket. Hogan needed an unconventional Biden-Trump race to stay competitive, and with Democrats now rallying around their standard bearer he no longer stands a chance.
Pennsylvania: Bob Casey vs Dave McCormick
DDHQ Forecast: Casey 81%, McCormick 19%
DDHQ Polling Average: Casey +8.2%
Last year, Mitch McConnell identified this seat as one of the GOP’s top targets because he considered Republican nominee Dave McCormick a “high-quality candidate”. The polls clearly don’t agree with him, though, as McCormick can’t seem to crack Casey’s lead in this Senate race. Take a recent Fox News survey, for example, which found McCormick’s deficit to be 13 points.
Then there’s the potential Shapiro factor: if Harris does indeed pick the PA Governor as her VP nominee, it will likely give the Democratic ticket yet another boost in the Keystone State. By the fall, Republicans may well conclude that their money could be better spent in states farther down on this list.
Wisconsin: Tammy Baldwin vs Eric Hovde
DDHQ Forecast: Baldwin 77%, Hovde 23%
DDHQ Polling Average: Baldwin +6.9%
Speaking of which, the Senate contest in the Badger State resembles its Blue Wall compatriot, with a popular Democratic incumbent holding a consistent lead over their Republican challenger. On top of that, both Democratic campaigns have also made quite a bit of hay over the GOP nominee living in another state.
Furthermore, it’s also clear that Sen. Baldwin isn’t afraid to be seen with VP Harris on the campaign trail, given that she accompanied the new nominee to Milwaukee on her first campaign stop after Pres. Biden dropped out of the race. That’s quite the contrast from when she refused to be seen with Biden after his disastrous debate performance.
Ohio: Sherrod Brown vs Bernie Moreno
DDHQ Forecast: Brown 63%, Moreno 37%
DDHQ Polling Average: Brown +6.3%
Few Senators were closer allies to President Biden than Sherrod Brown, as the two were true believers in the Rust Belt working-class Democratic dream. Yet their manufacturing renaissance has so far been unable to reverse Ohio’s drift to the GOP, to the point that the state is no longer considered competitive in a Presidential election for the first time in decades.
Will the Biden-Harris swap do anything to change that trajectory? Well, there is a considerable Black population in Ohio (12.58%) that could be newly energized. Nevertheless, the key outstanding questions remain whether Sen. Brown’s numbers are being inflated by incumbency, and whether Bernie Moreno can ride the Trump/Vance coattails to victory in the fall.
Michigan: Elissa Slotkin vs Mike Rogers
DDHQ Forecast: Slotkin 66%, Rogers 34%
DDHQ Polling Average: Slotkin +6.3%
The Republicans’ best shot at a pick-up among the Blue Wall trio is undoubtedly in Michigan, an open seat where they don’t have to oust an incumbent. Conversely, it’s been the toughest of the three for the GOP in the past eight years. Only in Michigan, for instance, have the Dems taken both the State Senate and State House.
The Great Lake State has yet to hold its primaries, but Congresswoman Elissa Slotkin and former Congressman Mike Rogers are widely expected to be the Democratic and Republican nominees respectively. Slotkin will try to follow in the footsteps of Governor Gretchen Whitmer, Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson and Attorney General Dana Nessel; female Democrats who’ve all won statewide office this decade.
Texas: Ted Cruz vs Colin Allred
DDHQ Forecast: Cruz 85%, Allred 15%
DDHQ Polling Average: Cruz +6.1%
There’s no larger, more tempting target for Democrats than the Lone Star State. Texas and its 40 electoral votes remains just tantalizingly out of reach for national Democrats – Trump won it by just five and a half points in 2020 – as has Senator Ted Cruz’s Senate seat. You’ll remember that Beto O’Rourke became a temporary rock star when it appeared he might unseat Cruz six years ago, only to fall two and a half points short.
Congressman and former NFL player Colin Allred is trying to run a more moderate campaign than Beto’s effort, hammering Cruz on abortion and the border. In the meantime, the Texas incumbent is becoming a conservative media institution upon himself. To that point, Sen. Cruz’s raised nearly $60 million so far in his campaign, more than any other Senate candidate in the nation.
Thus the conundrum for Senate Democrats: the Texas Senate election is both an expensive long-shot and a contest they absolutely need to win. If the party can’t expand the map to include this race, or the next one on this list, then Chuck Schumer stands to lose his Majority Leader title.
Florida: Rick Scott vs Debbie Mucarsel-Powell
DDHQ Forecast: Scott 83%, Mucarsel-Powell 17%
DDHQ Polling Average: Scott +5.5%
The Sunshine State, once famously the most purple state in the nation, just keeps getting redder and redder. Six years ago, Rick Scott won this seat by just 0.12% over then-incumbent Bill Nelson: now he’s at 83% in our aforementioned DDHQ forecast.
Despite all that, the newly-minted Harris campaign is actually asserting that they’re going to contest Florida. Moreover, a pair of recent polls both found Sen. Scott’s lead at just four points. Realistically, though, it’s hard to fathom the Democratic Party allocating enough money to seriously compete with Scott; a man whose estimated net worth stands at about $200 million.
Montana: Jon Tester vs Tim Sheehy
DDHQ Forecast: Sheehy 77%, Tester 23%
DDHQ Polling Average: Sheehy +4.1%
Over the past few weeks, just about every Democratic official in America has endorsed Harris for President. One of the few exceptions, however, is Montana’s incumbent Senator Jon Tester, who is refusing to formally back Harris. Such a move makes sense when you consider that Montana ranks last among all the 50 states in African-American population (0.5%).
Tester’s predicament, though, can’t really be attributed to Harris. After all – of all the incumbents on this list – Tester is the only one trailing in the polls right now, and he’s been behind for almost two months. The Big Sky State supported Trump by 16 points in 2020 – double his Ohio margin – making Tester’s task about twice as difficult as Sherrod Brown’s. As a result, this must-win contest for the Dems is looking more and more like a lost cause, meaning they’ll have to pull off an upset in Florida or Texas if they want to hold the Senate.
Arizona: Ruben Gallego vs Kari Lake
DDHQ Forecast: Gallego 52%, Lake 48%
DDHQ Polling Average: Gallego +4.1%
The conventional wisdom coming out of the 2022 midterms was that dedicated MAGA Republican Kari Lake cost the GOP the Arizona Governorship; losing the race by 0.67% where a more moderate Republican would’ve won. Now, despite never admitting she lost that Governor’s race, Lake is now the GOP nominee in this year’s open Senate contest.
The biggest problem for her opponent, Rep. Ruben Gallego, going into the summer was President Biden’s Sun Belt struggles. Suddenly, that reality’s been turned on its head, as one new Bloomberg/Morning Consult poll shows Harris ahead in Arizona for the first time. If Harris truly can compete here at the top of the ticket, it will be a major break for Gallego and the Senate Dems.
Nevada: Jacky Rosen vs Sam Brown
DDHQ Forecast: Rosen 73%, Brown 27%
DDHQ Polling Average: Rosen +5%
The Silver State was arguably Joe Biden’s worst swing state, going all the way back to 2020 when it was one of the few states where Biden fell behind Hillary Clinton’s margin from 2016. Like Arizona, the Biden campaign practically wrote it off after the debate only for Harris to take a lead in the recent Bloomberg/Morning Consult poll.
Incumbent Senator Jacky Rosen responded to Biden’s struggles by seeking distance from her party. With Harris inspiring newfound enthusiasm among Latino voters, however, she may need to adjust her strategy against Army veteran Sam Brown. Brown, who unsuccessfully ran for the 2022 Senate nomination before winning it this year, is betting that a campaign built on the border and crime will work here.