Welcome to October and this Presidential campaign’s latest lull of uncertainty. At this moment, we’re less than two weeks out and all seven swing states look to be within the margin of error. It’s at times like these when people who spend far too much of their lives thinking about politics – let’s face it, people like myself – ponder the various paradoxes in the polling. … [Read more...] about Thoughts On The Ticket-Splitting Mystery
2024 Senate elections
Senate Map Update: Dems Look to Florida and Texas as Montana Hopes Fade
We’re just about a month away from Election Night, and the Senate battleground is still shifting. Right now, I see nine competitive races, in a Senate that outside of those contests stands at 48 Republicans and 43 Democrats. As a result, the GOP’s got the inside track on gaining the majority, needing to win just two or three of these nine elections (depending on which party … [Read more...] about Senate Map Update: Dems Look to Florida and Texas as Montana Hopes Fade
Senate Map Update: Even After Presidential Shake-Up, GOP Retains Advantage
We’ve undergone a month of chaos in the 2024 Presidential election, but the fundamentals of the 2024 Senate remain tough to shake. Of the 33 Senate seats up for grabs, only 11 are represented by Republicans while 22 belong to Democrats or Democratic-aligned Independents. Since Democrats are widely expected to lose the open seat in West Virginia being vacated by Joe Manchin, … [Read more...] about Senate Map Update: Even After Presidential Shake-Up, GOP Retains Advantage
A Victory for Both Trump and the Democrats as Moreno Wins Ohio Senate GOP Primary
The results in last night's top contest managed to please both progressives and conservatives as car dealer Bernie Moreno secured the Republican nomination in the Ohio Senate primary. Moreno was elevated by the endorsement of Donald Trump last December, and just a week ago got some unlikely help from the Senate Democratic leadership PAC. The Dem PAC ran a TV ad claiming … [Read more...] about A Victory for Both Trump and the Democrats as Moreno Wins Ohio Senate GOP Primary
2024 Senate Outlook: Manchin’s Exit & The New Big Four
Now that Election Night 2023 is in the books, it’s the perfect time to shift our focus ahead to the 2024 elections. Much has changed since we last took a look at the 2024 Senate map in May, so that’s a great place to start. In fact, just last week we saw a massive development that will fundamentally alter the electoral math. On Thursday, West Virginia Democratic Sen. Joe … [Read more...] about 2024 Senate Outlook: Manchin’s Exit & The New Big Four