The results in last night’s top contest managed to please both progressives and conservatives as car dealer Bernie Moreno secured the Republican nomination in the Ohio Senate primary.
Moreno was elevated by the endorsement of Donald Trump last December, and just a week ago got some unlikely help from the Senate Democratic leadership PAC.
The Dem PAC ran a TV ad claiming Moreno was too conservative, in the hopes of fooling more low-information conservatives into supporting the man Democrats believe will be the weakest general election candidate. This technique’s become particularly common for Dems ever since it helped Missouri Senator Claire McCaskill win another term back in 2012.
Regardless, given the eventual margin of victory, it appears that the support of the GOP standard bearer made much more of a difference. Not even the last-minute threat of scandal could ultimately hurt Moreno.
With 88% of precincts in, Moreno leads with 552,963 votes (50.5%) ahead of State Senator Matt Dolan’s 359,867 votes (32.9%). Secretary of State Frank LaRose settled for third with 182,307 votes (16.6%).
Moreno not only carried a majority of the vote, he even won all eighty-eight counties in Ohio. To put that in perspective, Dolan was able to carry three counties in his 2022 Senate primary contest against J.D. Vance: Cuyahoga, Franklin and Geauga.
This time, Moreno carried Cuyahoga and neighboring Geauga despite the fact that Dolan’s family owns the Cleveland Guardians baseball team.
Initially, this contest started with LaRose holding an early lead that began to evaporate at the end of last year, when Moreno hit the airwaves and won backing from Trump. Over the past few weeks, however, endorsements from Governor Mike DeWine and former Sen. Rob Portman fueled a late surge for Dolan.
So is Moreno the weakest general election nominee of the three? Well, nine months of hypothetical surveys suggest that Moreno is indeed the candidate who fares worst against Democratic incumbent Senator Sherrod Brown.
This is a critical point for Democrats as it’s difficult to conceive of a way for them to hold their Senate majority if Sen. Brown does not win re-election. Remember, Dems hold a 51-49 majority and seem certain to lose Joe Manchin’s West Virginia seat.
Therefore, the party will need to win both Senate races in the Trump 2020 states of Ohio and Montana. On top of that, Dems also have to hold seats in five battleground states: Arizona, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
All the while, the only races where Republican incumbents are even slightly endangered are those in Florida and Texas.
Now, let’s check out the special election primaries in Ohio’s open 6th Congressional District, a R+16 seat on the state’s eastern border.
With 96% of precincts in for the Republican primary, State Senator Michael Rulli won 43,527 votes (49.6%) against State Representative Reggie Stoltzfus’ 35,691 votes (40.6%).
Meanwhile in the Democratic primary, with 98% of precincts in, Air Force veteran Michael Kripchak won 20,501 votes (66.3%) against marijuana business owner Rylan Finzler’s 10,400 votes (33.7%).
Finally, let’s finish with a quick look at the Presidential vote shares for tonight’s primaries in Arizona, Illinois, Kansas and of course Ohio.
Arizona
Biden 89.8%
Trump 76.2%
Illinois
Biden 91.3%
Trump 80.7%
Kansas
Biden 83.8%
Trump 75.5%
Ohio
Biden 87.0%
Trump 79.0%
The above numbers show that Nikki Haley continues to get a stubborn share of Never-Trump Republicans. On the other hand, though, the GOP primaries saw higher turnout in all these states except deep-blue Illinois.
One last note, there was no Democratic primary in Florida, an unforced error by the Florida Dems. In the GOP primary, Donald Trump received 81.0% in his adopted home state.
The next primary contests are set for Saturday when Democrats and Republicans go to the polls in Louisiana, alongside Democrats in Missouri. You can follow those results here at Decision Desk HQ. Next week, I’ll have a more detailed breakdown of April’s primary contests.