The voters have been clear for years now, the economy – specifically high prices caused by inflation – is their #1 concern.
You may well remember that this was also the case during the 2022 midterms, yet that fall Republicans nevertheless pivoted their messaging from inflation to crime. I noted right after those results came in that this was a critical mistake that may well have cost the GOP control of the Senate.
So it was a bit of a surprise to see Donald Trump make that same error during this campaign, for as summer turned into fall Trump pivoted away from the economy and inflation in his TV ads, and instead turned towards transgender people.
According to Marc Caputo of The Bulwark, over the past five weeks the Trump campaign spent $29 million on commercials centered on transgender issues, more than double the amount used on immigration, which came in second place.
Certainly for anyone watching football or playoff baseball this fall, it felt like every single ad break included at least one GOP commercial about transgender athletes or transgender inmates.
Moreover, this development is particularly peculiar since this whole strategy really resembles Ron DeSantis’ playbook more than Donald Trump’s. Perhaps the former President was inspired by his preferred method of focus grouping: polling his crowds.
Take, for instance, this June 10, 2023 event in Greensboro, North Carolina, when Trump’s section on transgender people got a particularly vigorous round of applause.
“It’s amazing how strongly people feel about that. You see, I talk about cutting taxes, people go like that,” Trump explained while mimicking polite applause. “I talk about transgender everybody goes crazy. Who would’ve thought? Five years ago you didn’t know what the hell it was!”
On top of that, according to a recent New York Times report, Trump believes his crowds indicate the economy isn’t a winning issue. “Trump has told allies that he thinks crowds get ‘bored’ when he talks too much about the economy,” the Times reveals.
Trump’s uphill messaging battle recalls the 2020 campaign, when the Republican nominee fruitlessly tried to make crime the top issue, even while the nation clearly considered COVID to be their #1 concern.
To that point, Trump’s advantage on the economy has nearly universally shrunk following his fall pivot. For example, the most recent national New York Times survey found Trump’s lead on the economy dropping from 13 points to 6 points. In Pennsylvania, the last Franklin & Marshall poll found a similar tightening from 11 to 6.
Furthermore, the Bloomberg/Morning Consult survey of the seven swing states found Harris taking a lead over Trump on taxes and housing costs, while also narrowing Trump’s edge on interest rates, gas prices and even the cost of everyday goods.
Finally, Equis Research just found that Harris is now ahead of Trump on the economy among the always crucial Latino voters.
Ironically, this all comes as Harris herself has mostly shifted her message from her economic plans to the threat Trump poses to democracy and freedom. Of course, it’s not a total pivot – the campaign is still hammering Trump’s tariff proposals – but the change still has many Dems panicking. Nonetheless, Harris is sure to make January 6th central to her closing argument in Tuesday’s address.
So perhaps the economic battle won’t be determinative, and the campaign will instead be decided on some other ground. After all, this is the first post-Dobbs Presidential election, and abortion likely played a major factor in Democratic overperformance in the 2022 midterms.
Any one factor could prove decisive at this point, but if Trump does indeed lose on November 5th, I’ll contend that his fall pivot away from the economy was the culprit.