What a difference a few weeks can make!
On the eve of the debate, we wondered whether anything could happen to truly shake this race up. Since then, of course, all hell’s practically broken loose.
Vance Wins the Veepstakes
Let’s start with the latest news first: on Monday afternoon Donald Trump announced Ohio Senator J.D. Vance as his Vice Presidential nominee.
The two men have a particularly intriguing history together, going back to the summer of 2016, when Vance was promoting his memoir about his Appalachian upbringing in the midst of that year’s Presidential campaign. Vance was asked about Trump quite a bit in that period and gave generally negative answers, once even musing to a friend that Trump might end up being “America’s Hitler”.
Yet over the next few years, in a conversion extensively covered in various Vance profile pieces, the author pivoted away from his 2016 Never Trump stance and established himself as a pro-Trump voice ahead of his 2022 Senate campaign.
The turning point came when Trump endorsed Vance in that Ohio Republican Primary thanks to the interventions of billionaire venture capitalists Peter Thiel and David Sacks, as well as Donald Trump Jr. In fact, the revelation that Don Jr. would introduce the VP nominee at the RNC on Wednesday night sparked speculation that the pick would indeed be Vance.
New reporting indicates Don and Eric’s support were a critical factor in Trump’s decision-making, as was the advice of Tucker Carlson and Elon Musk. Rupert Murdoch and Karl Rove, on the other hand, were pushing for North Dakota Governor Doug Burgum. Ultimately, as in the 2016 VP selection process, Trump was driven by image concerns, noting approvingly that Vance was out of “central casting”.
The Vance pick is less about Ohio – which is no longer considered a swing state (although it is home to a crucial 2024 Senate race) – than the Rust Belt as a whole. The Trump team is optimistic that Vance will help them in the Blue Wall trio of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. So it’s a double-down strategy, aimed particularly at white men, rather than an attempt to grow their coalition.
Trump Assassination Attempt
Of course, hanging over this VP selection process is Saturday’s assassination attempt against Donald Trump, when he became the first sitting or former President wounded by gunfire since Ronald Reagan was nearly murdered on March 30, 1981. George Wallace was the last Presidential candidate to be shot, when he was paralyzed by a bullet on May 15, 1972.
The best historical parallel for Trump, however, is almost certainly Theodore Roosevelt. Roosevelt too was both a former President, as well as a candidate, when he was shot on October 14, 1912; just 22 days before Election Day. Now, this Roosevelt comparison isn’t perfect. Back then, his third-party candidacy split the Republican vote and, as a result, he was never really expected to win and ended up settling for second instead.
Such a momentous event obviously prompts several questions: Will Trump get a bump in the polls? And, if so, how big will it be and how long will it last? Well, let’s look to history for some insight.
According to Gallup’s Presidential approval ratings’ archive, Ronald Reagan’s rating rose from 60% to 67% in the weeks after the attempt on his life. A month later, Reagan’s approval inched up to 68% before falling to 59% a month after that.
Of course, this was over four decades ago, and in a vastly different political and media environment. Even so, Reagan’s polling bump faded away after just three months, and we’re more than three months away from Election Night.
Furthermore, we can look to a somewhat similar episode during Donald Trump’s actual Presidency; when America’s COVID outbreak produced a brief ‘rally around the flag’ effect in March 2020. On March 11th, for instance, Trump’s FiveThirtyEight approval average was 42.3%. Over the next few days it reached 45.8%, his highest rating ever, before falling back down to 42.6% on April 28th.
All of this suggests that whatever bump Trump gets in the polls, it’s liable to be smaller than expected and to last for a short amount of time. In fact, since it occurred so close to the Republican Convention, it may be impossible to tell what can be attributed to the shooting and what can be attributed to the typical convention bounce.
Biden’s Fight for the Democratic Nomination
Meanwhile, the race on the Democratic side continues on in stalemate.
Since President Biden’s disastrous debate performance on June 27th, forecasts of his ability to survive have fluctuated like a roller coaster. During the week afterward, with Biden largely out of sight and not reaching out to Democratic leaders, momentum seemed to be growing against Biden staying in.
Then, as members of Congress returned to D.C. on July 7th, the public shows of support from the likes of AOC appeared to turn the tide. The next turn of the wheel came on Wednesday morning, though, when Nancy Pelosi went on MSNBC and effectively re-opened debate on the issue. Apparently, Pelosi is a leading voice behind-the-scenes in the effort to get Biden to step aside, but she wanted to wait until last week’s NATO Summit was finished.
The winds shifted again, however, after Biden’s press conference at the conclusion of said NATO Summit. Still, statements from Congressional Dems continued to trickle out and various caucuses were in the midst of holding contentious conference calls with Biden when the country came to a halt Saturday evening.
It was initially thought that the tragedy in Butler would extinguish whatever hopes Biden’s critics in the Democratic Party still had about a last-minute switch before the Convention. Nevertheless, even more polls were released on Monday showing Harris doing better than Biden (this time in Pennsylvania and Virginia). On top of that, a separate set of surveys found the various swing state Senate Democratic nominees all running far ahead of the President.
Perhaps as a result, a number of additional reports soon emerged on continuing Democratic doubts. Then on Tuesday, several House Democrats condemned an effort to virtually nominate Biden weeks ahead of the actual convention (this plan was developed to counter a possible Ohio ballot problem that is no longer an issue).
Ultimately, the odds that Joe Biden can be convinced to drop out remain long. It will take party leaders like Hakeem Jeffries, Chuck Schumer and Nancy Pelosi going public with calls for him to step aside to create enough pressure to actually force Biden out.
During especially chaotic times like these, I turn to a motto from legendary screenwriter William Goldman, writer of such film classics as Butch Cassidy and the Sundance Kid and All the President’s Men: “Nobody knows anything.”
I’ve found this sentiment applies not only to Hollywood but to politics too, as well as most aspects of life, really. So at a time when circumstances are in such a state of flux, it’s worthwhile to remember that prognostication can only take us so far. After all, nobody knows anything.