The 2021 elections were a disaster for the Biden White House and Democrats. The 2022 midterms, however, were a surprising reprieve, as Republicans vastly underperformed historical expectations. And now, 2023 was probably the strongest year yet for Biden’s Democratic Party as they managed to win nearly every closely-watched race. Let’s take a look at those contests, starting … [Read more...] about Dems Score Rare Off-Year Triumph As They Turn Towards 2024
Abortion
Ohio Issue 1 and Issue 2 preview
Today, Ohio voters will decide whether to pass two ballot measures. Issue 1, formally titled “The Right to Reproductive Freedom with Protections for Health and Safety,” would modify the state constitution to enshrine access to contraception, fertility treatment, and “the right to abortion up to the point of fetal viability” — the same standard that applied under Roe v. Wade. … [Read more...] about Ohio Issue 1 and Issue 2 preview
Parties Finalize Fall Strategies Ahead of High-Stakes Battle for Control of the Virginia Legislature
Two months out from Election Day 2023, perhaps the most exciting contest to watch is the battle for control of the Virginia State Legislature. At this moment, Democrats hold a narrow 22-17-1 majority in the State Senate while the Republicans enjoy a slim 50-46 majority in the House of Delegates, so both chambers could conceivably be won by either party. Ballotpedia … [Read more...] about Parties Finalize Fall Strategies Ahead of High-Stakes Battle for Control of the Virginia Legislature
Why Ohio’s Issue 1 Special Election is Taking Center Stage this August
Ohio is preparing for a Special Election on August 8th, a stage for the heavily publicized and costly battle around Issue 1. Backed by the Ohio state GOP, a YES vote on Issue 1 would increase the difficulty for Ohio voters to pass constitutional amendments through ballot questions, requiring 60% of voters to affirm a new constitutional amendment, an increase from the current … [Read more...] about Why Ohio’s Issue 1 Special Election is Taking Center Stage this August
Roe Overturn Led to Historic Realignment in 2022 Midterms
The strength of education polarization broke historical precedent in 2022 US House races, overpowering “down-ballot lag,” which occurs when changes in partisan patterns appear first at the presidential level, to drive continued realignment during this midterm cycle. Education polarization drove rapid and notable realignment between the 2012 and 2020 presidential elections, and … [Read more...] about Roe Overturn Led to Historic Realignment in 2022 Midterms