As the calendar flips over to 2024, it’s long past time to take a look at this cycle’s Gubernatorial elections.
During Presidential years there are traditionally 11 Governorships up for grabs, and that’s no different this time. Eight of those eleven seats are currently held by Republicans, and seven of these contests are in states Donald Trump won in 2020, so it’s a bit of a red-skewed battleground.
Now, let’s dive into each of these eleven races, starting alphabetically with the nation’s first state.
Delaware
Elections Daily Rating: Safe Democratic
In President Biden’s home state, they’ll be an open competition for Governor as incumbent John Carney is term-limited. Carney has already designated his chosen successor, however, in Lt. Governor Bethany Hall-Long.
In addition to her two terms as Lt. Governor, Hall-Long spent eight years in the Delaware State Senate and six years in the State House. Now the 60 year-old is aiming for the top job.
Competing with her in the Democratic Primary is New Castle County Executive Matt Meyer, although there’s also some speculation that Attorney General Kathy Jennings could still decide to jump in, despite the fact that she hasn’t made any moves towards a candidacy.
Meanwhile, the most incredible aspect of the Republican Primary is that there really isn’t one, as so far no one’s jumped into the race. That’s a particularly vivid illustration of just how bleak it’s gotten for the Delaware GOP, which hasn’t won a Governor’s race since 1988.
Nevertheless, Delaware has one of the latest primaries in the nation – it’s currently set for September 3, 2024 – so there’s still plenty of time.
Indiana
Elections Daily Rating: Safe Republican
The Hoosier State is home to a GOP primary between the Trump and Establishment wings of the party.
On the one side is U.S. Senator Mike Braun, who’s got the support of Donald Trump, Americans for Prosperity and the Club for Growth. On the other side is Lt. Governor Suzanne Crouch, who’s got the backing of Rep. Larry Bucshon, Rep. Greg Pence and a slew of state legislators.
At this early juncture, Crouch is keeping up with Braun in the money race, yet Braun still has the inside track, given that he’s the more conservative candidate with higher name ID. Among the other contenders running in this Republican contest are former IEDC President Eric Doden and former Attorney General Curtis Hill.
Over in the Democratic primary, the party seems to be consolidating behind former Indiana Superintendent of Public Instruction Jennifer McCormick. By running a former Republican, Democrats are aiming to finally break through and win a Gubernatorial race in this ruby red state, a feat they haven’t accomplished since 2000.
Missouri
Elections Daily Rating: Safe Republican
In the Show-Me State, Jay Ashcroft is seeking to follow in his father John’s footsteps by becoming Governor. The elder Ashcroft, of course, leveraged his Governorship into a Senate seat and then became U.S. Attorney General during George W. Bush’s first term. The younger Ashcroft is looking for his first step up as he finishes his second term as Missouri’s Secretary of State.
The only problem? Sitting Lt. Governor Mike Kehoe is standing in Ashcroft’s way. On top of that, Kehoe’s received the endorsement of the Missouri Fraternal Order of Police, Fire Fighter Association and several business associations.
In his own corner, Ashcroft has the support of the Missouri Right to Life, and a healthy lead in most early polls.
Yet while the GOP primary is far from settled, the Missouri Democrats appear to be putting all their chips on State House Minority Leader Crystal Quade. Despite their unanimity, however, it remains highly unlikely that the Dems will be competitive in this increasingly Republican state.
Montana
Elections Daily Rating: Safe Republican
Out in Big Sky Country we actually have an incumbent Governor running for re-election, as Republican Greg Gianforte pursues a second term. In spite of the fact that Democrats perform particularly well here in Montana, at least compared to other Mountain West states, Gianforte won by a nearly 13-point margin back in 2020.
For the moment, the only Democratic candidate in the race is “former firearms executive turned gun industry critic” Ryan Busse. The more notable challenger, though, is arguably coming from Gov. Gianforte’s own party. Tanner Smith, a freshman State Representative, is seeking to pull off a long-shot upset in the state’s June 4th primary.
Of the four incumbent Governors running in 2024, Gov. Gianforte has the lowest approval ratings in Morning Consult’s survey, although he still stands at a healthy 55% against a 37% disapproval rating. Therefore, he remains a solid favorite to win another term.
New Hampshire
Elections Daily Rating: Toss-Up
You’ve no doubt noticed that so far none of these contests is really considered to be that competitive. Well, we’ve finally reached a toss-up race here, as the surprise retirement of incumbent Republican Governor Chris Sununu broke this contest wide open.
In the GOP primary, former Senator Kelly Ayotte is seeking to make her comeback after falling just 1,017 votes short in her 2016 Senate re-election campaign. She’ll have the backing of major party figures like former Senator Judd Gregg, State Senator Bill Gannon and State House Majority Leader Jason Osbourne, yet she won’t be unopposed.
Chuck Morse, the former State Senate President and unsuccessful 2022 U.S. Senate candidate, is challenging Ayotte for the Republican nomination. You might remember Morse from that 2022 primary, when he was the establishment favorite who couldn’t manage to overcome conservative insurgent Don Bolduc. Judging by the few preliminary polls of this primary, Ayotte is heavily favored to prevail.
Conversely, the Democratic primary is far from decided. Even before Gov. Sununu dropped out of the race, Executive Councilor Cinde Warmington had already thrown her hat into the ring and secured the support of former Congresswoman Carol Shea-Porter.
After Sununu’s announcement, though, Manchester Mayor Joyce Craig entered the race with the bulk of the establishment support, including the endorsement of several local labor unions. Additionally, an August Emerson survey of a Craig-Warmington primary found Craig with a 30% to 15% advantage.
It all adds up to one of the two most competitive contests in November. Speaking of which…
North Carolina
Elections Daily Rating: Toss-Up
The other major toss-up gubernatorial election is the open race in the perpetually purple state of North Carolina.
Departing Democratic Governor Roy Cooper is hoping to hand over the reins to Attorney General Josh Stein, and while Cooper was able to get the party to line up behind Stein, they weren’t able to fully clear the field. Instead former State Supreme Court Justice Michael Morgan is also running, although he’s starting out far behind Stein.
The Tar Heel State is one of those places where it’s possible for the Governor and Lt. Governor to be from different parties, and the sitting Lt. Governor Mark Robinson just so happens to also be the 2024 Republican Gubernatorial front-runner. Why? Well, Robinson’s already got the endorsement of Donald Trump and Senator Ted Budd, plus a strong polling lead. Among those running behind Robinson are State Treasurer Dale Folwell, attorney Bill Graham, and former State Senator Andy Wells.
Back in both 2020 and 2016, North Carolina had the closest results of all that cycle’s Gubernatorial contests, and the state seems destined to make it three times in a row in 2024.
North Dakota
Elections Daily Rating: Safe Republican
You’d be forgiven if you thought incumbent Governor Doug Burgum had dropped out of the 2024 Presidential race months ago. After all, when he finally withdrew on December 4th, he was down to just 0.7% and 0.6% respectively in the FiveThirtyEight and RealClearPolitics averages. Not only that, he fell short of the threshold for last month’s debate and was set to miss this week’s meeting too.
Given all that, plus the fact that Burgum’s approval/disapproval split is still 59/26 despite that quixotic national campaign, it would make sense for him to instead seek a third term as Governor.
As you might expect, however, several Republicans are not-so-quietly waiting to hop into the race if Burgum decides to pack it in; including, but not limited to, Congresswoman Kelly Armstrong, Lt. Governor Tammy Miller, Attorney General Drew Wigley and Secretary of State Michael Howe.
Whoever the GOP nominee is, they’ll be the overwhelming favorite to win in November. In fact, there’s no discernable Democratic candidate in the race right now, although the primary isn’t set until June 11th. Regardless, it appears highly unlikely North Dakota Democrats will win their first Gubernatorial contest since 1988.
Utah
Elections Daily Rating: Safe Republican
Spencer Cox is also a popular incumbent GOP Governor seeking another term, and while he enjoys a 60% approval rating in deeply red Utah, he still won’t get the benefit of an uncontested primary. State Representative Phil Lyman is aiming to challenge Gov. Cox from the right, and he’ll undoubtedly use Cox’s comments doubting Trump’s chances of winning in 2024 to try to provoke Trump into endorsing this effort. Therefore, definitely make sure to keep an eye out for any Truth Social posts on this primary.
On the other hand, the Democratic primary is much less exciting, with only State Rep. Brian King weighing a potential bid. Given that no Utah Democrat has won the Governorship since way back in 1980, it’s not hard to see why so few are eager to give it a shot.
Vermont
Elections Daily Rating: Likely Republican
The central question in the Green Mountain State concerns what incumbent Republican Governor Phil Scott will do next year. Like its neighbor New Hampshire, Vermont elects Governors to two-year terms and they’re not afraid to elect the right kind of Republican. To that point, Gov. Scott enjoys the best approval rating of any Governor in the nation, an incredible 84%.
As a result, Scott would be heavily favored to win if he ran, yet he’s pledged to wait until spring to actually decide. Potential challengers, then, have to weigh their own considerations while also waiting for Scott. For the moment, two Democratic hopefuls – State Rep. Caleb Elder and Burlington Mayor Miro Weinberger – are pondering whether to jump in.
Should Gov. Scott ultimately choose to pass on this contest, we’d very likely have a third toss-up race on our hands.
Washington
Elections Daily Rating: Safe Democratic
Meanwhile, Washington’s incumbent Democratic Governor Jay Inslee passed on a fourth term, presenting an enticing opportunity for Democrats in this state that hasn’t elected a Republican Governor since 1980. Since Washington has a nonpartisan top-two primary system, similar to California’s, it’s actually possible that the November election will end up being between two Democratic candidates.
While he’s not running himself, Inslee does have a chosen successor, in the form of Attorney General Bob Ferguson. AG Ferguson also secured the support of Senator Maria Cantwell and most of the state’s Democratic establishment. Nevertheless, Democratic State Senator Mark Mullet still decided to make his own go of it, with the backing of some of his colleagues from Olympia as well as Secretary of State Steve Hobbs.
As for the Republicans, former Congressman Dave Reichert (who served from 2005 to 2019) is their most serious candidate in terms of both endorsements and name recognition. In fact, one November survey from the progressive Public Policy Polling group found Reichert tied with Ferguson at 31% atop the entire blanket primary field.
West Virginia
Elections Daily Rating: Safe Republican
Finally, in West Virginia, we’ve got one last open contest since incumbent GOP Governor Jim Justice is term-limited and seeking a promotion – or a demotion, depending on your view – to the U.S. Senate. So far Justice hasn’t weighed in on the Republican primary, but Senator Shelley Moore Capito definitely has, since her son State House Delegate Moore Capito (yes, that’s his name) is running.
The Capitos were unable to clear the GOP field, however, as Attorney General and 2018 Senate nominee Patrick Morrisey decided to throw his hat into the ring. AG Morrisey’s won the backing of conservative groups like Citizens United, the Club for Growth, and Americans for Prosperity. Early polls also find Morrisey leading the pack ahead of Capito, Secretary of State Mac Warner and Congresswoman Carol Miller’s son Chris.
Conversely, in the Democratic primary, the only major candidate is Huntington Mayor Steve Williams. Given West Virginia’s rapid transformation into a deep red state over the past 25 years, Williams will be fighting an uphill battle with whoever wins the Republican nomination.