Politics never takes a break, not even during the dog days of August.
This year, the drama is in tiny Rhode Island, where the primaries for the special election in the 1st Congressional District is set for September 5th. This contest was set up to replace Rep. David Ciclline, who resigned to be CEO and President of the Rhode Island Foundation.
The 1st is a particularly blue district, with the Cook Political Report rating it a D+12 seat, so the Democratic primary will likely determine the winner in November. Nevertheless, businessman and ex-Marine Gerry Leonard Jr. is the Republican party’s preferred choice over Middletown Town Councilor Terri Flynn.
As you might expect, the Democratic contest is considerably more crowded, even after one contender was disqualified and another candidate dropped out. Altogether, there are twelve candidates on the ballot, eight of which could be classified as actual contenders. So let’s take a look at those eight Democratic candidates.
Gabe Amo
Amo recently worked in the Biden White House as Deputy Director of the White House Office of Intergovernmental Affairs, experience that earned him the support of Biden’s first Chief of Staff Ron Klain. Amo also scored the endorsement of the Congressional Black Caucus PAC, a boost in a district that’s 9% Black.
Sandra Cano
Cano is a State Senator and is actually engaged to the state’s Treasurer. Unsurprisingly, then, she’s got the support of both the Treasurer and a number of her Senate colleagues. Even more significant, though, are her backers in organized labor, as both the National Education Association and the United Nurses and Allied Professionals have endorsed her.
Donald Carlson
A former aide to ex-Congressman Joe Kennedy II, Carlson has the support of the LGBT+ Victory Fund. Well, technically it was a joint endorsement – but the other guy was Nick Autiello, who’s the one who dropped out, so now I guess the endorsement is just Carlson’s alone. Carlson also earned the support of Congressman Jim Hines from the neighboring state of Connecticut.
Stephen Casey
Casey’s represented Rhode Island’s 50th State House district since 2013 and is now seeking a promotion to the U.S. House. The firefighter’s chaired the Health and Housing Committees in Providence, but it appears none of his colleagues are supporting his effort towards a promotion.
John Goncalves
Speaking of Providence, John Goncalves is a member of the Providence City Council. The eastern part of the capital city is included in Rhode Island’s 1st Congressional District, so if he could consolidate support there he’d have a real chance. Yet there’s no indication that he’s been able to get the city’s establishment on board, as instead they seem to be backing someone else.
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Sabina Matos
If there’s a front-runner in this race, it’s probably Sabina Matos. Matos spent a decade in the Providence City Council, including two stints as President, before being appointed Rhode Island’s Lieutenant Governor in April 2021. She has a long list of local endorsements, as well as national backers like Emily’s List, the Congressional Hispanic Caucus PAC, and the Latino Victory Fund. That support could prove particularly pivotal in a district that’s 14.7% Hispanic.
Furthermore, Matos led in two of the three surveys done on this race. Now, one of these polls was sponsored by the Matos campaign itself, so that should be taken into account. Nevertheless, on average she’s likely the favorite in this primary contest.
Ana Quezada
Like Cano, Quezada is a Rhode Island State Senator who’s secured the support of some of her Providence colleagues. Among those backing Sen. Quezada are former State Senator Jeanine Calkin and a trio of State Representatives: Jose Batista, Enrique Sanchez and Scott Slater. It’s quite possible that Cano and Quezada cancel each other out, leaving Matos to benefit.
Aaron Regunberg
If Matos is the establishment front-runner, then former State Rep. Aaron Regunberg is the progressive insurgent who represents her top challenger. Regunberg is being backed by progressive champions like Bernie Sanders, Jamie Raskin and even Jane Fonda. On top of that, he enjoys the endorsements of the local Communications Workers of America, the Congressional Progressive Caucus PAC and Rhode Island’s Working Families Party.
Finally, there’s that third poll mentioned above, which found Regunberg with a five-point advantage over Matos. In a presumably low-turnout, off-year primary, Regunberg’s progressive supporters may well be enough to lift him to victory in this solidly blue district.