Voters may finally be realizing that we are headed for a Joe Biden-Donald Trump rematch in November. Why? Well, the primary protest vote continues to slowly but steadily decline, as less disgruntled partisans show up to make their discontent heard.
Biden and Trump both typically secure about 80% of their primary vote while Uncommitted and Nikki Haley respectively take about 10-15%. That was once again the case in Tuesday night’s quartet of states: Connecticut, New York, Rhode Island and Wisconsin.
While the three deep blue states saw higher Democratic turnout, lengthening that list of states where the Dems have managed that feat, the most interesting developments of the night took place in Wisconsin.
Wisconsin
Unlike the Northeastern trio it shared a primary date with, the Badger State is a toss-up that could well prove to be the pivotal contest come November.
With about 96% of precincts reporting in the Republican primary, Trump leads with 475,576 votes (79.2%) compared to Haley’s 76,666 votes (12.8%).
In their Democratic Primary, with about 98% of precincts in, President Biden sits at 511,444 votes (88.6%). “Uninstructed Delegate” finished second with 48,090 votes (8.3%).
That Uninstructed number is likely a disappointment for the Uncommitted forces. After all, they achieved one of their best showings – 18.8% – in neighboring Minnesota. That was during Super Tuesday, though, before the nominations were effectively clinched and we hit this lull.
Nevertheless, there were a pair of important ballot questions here. These initiatives would prohibit private NGOs from contributing money and staff to election administration. They were inspired by a multi-million dollar effort in 2020, led by Mark Zuckerberg, to help local election offices nationwide.
This effort absolutely infuriated conservatives, led by Donald Trump, who viewed the drive as election interference on behalf of the Democrats. As a result, Republicans are seeking to ban any such future donations any way and anywhere they can, with these Wisconsin initiatives as the latest step in that effort.
Question 1, which would amend the State Constitution to ban donations from private non-governmental organizations, passed by a 54.4% to 45.6% margin; 635,623 votes to 532,731 votes.
Question 2, which would amend the State Constitution to restrict those who can administer elections, passed by a slightly larger 58.5% to 41.5% margin; 681,682 votes to 482,763 votes.
Finally, it appears Wisconsin will be the sole April 2nd state to record a larger Republican than Democratic turnout, as 600,183 voted in the GOP primary while 577,328 voted in the Democratic contest.
New York
In the Empire State, Biden captured 91.5% of the vote – his best showing of the night – compiling the support of 276,784 voters, way ahead of Marianne Williamson’s 4.9%.
Unlike those in other states, Democrats eager to send a message to the President on Gaza decided to leave the top contest on the ballot blank. The drawback to such a strategy, though, is that we won’t know until the results are certified just how many actually joined in this endeavor.
Meanwhile, in his old home state, Donald Trump got 81.9% of the vote thanks to the support of 131,667. 20,725 voters, or 12.9%, chose to go with Nikki Haley instead.
Altogether, Democratic turnout in the Presidential race still far exceeded the GOP contest: 302,563 to 160,685.
Connecticut
With almost all of the vote in, Joe Biden won 55,476 votes (84.7%) as Uncommitted compiled 7,621 votes (11.6%).
In the Republican primary, Donald Trump took 34,709 votes (77.8%) while Nikki Haley scored 6,231 votes (14.0%). Altogether, 65,479 people voted in the Democratic Presidential primary compared to 44,602 in the GOP contest.
Rhode Island
With nearly all the precincts in, Joe Biden stands at 20,906 votes (82.6%) against Uncommitted’s 3,766 votes (14.9%).
Conversely, Donald Trump won 10,808 votes (84.5%) while Nikki Haley took 1,356 votes (10.6%).
Ironically, the Ocean State was both Biden’s worst performance of the night and Trump’s best performance. As for turnout, 25,322 Democrats voted in the Presidential primary whereas 12,788 Republicans cast a ballot.
The next results you can follow here at Decision Desk HQ will be the Alaska and Wyoming Democratic caucuses on April 13th.