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Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Another New York Congressional Special: An April Primaries Preview

March 27, 2024 by Nick Field

election resultsDon’t listen to T.S. Elliott, April is a perfectly fine month for elections.

In fact, April 2024 features three major primary dates that are worth delving into as we approach next month’s dawn.  

April 2nd Presidential Primaries: Connecticut, New York, Rhode Island and Wisconsin

Although the drama of the Presidential primaries is pretty much over, that doesn’t mean we still can’t learn from them. Just take last week, when Nikki Haley continued to pull anywhere from 13.8% to 17.8% in the various contests; a notable protest vote against Donald Trump that’s generally exceeded the protest votes cast against Joe Biden in the Democratic primaries. 

On the other hand, the Republican primaries have inspired larger turnout in most of the states. So far, Democrats produced a higher total turnout in just five states: California, Illinois, Massachusetts, Nevada and Washington. 

Furthermore, Nevada doesn’t really count, since the state Republican Party stunted turnout by running both a primary and a caucus. That leaves only four deep blue states, but with upcoming contests in Connecticut, New York and Rhode Island, they’ve got three prime opportunities to add to the list. 

One area to watch is the New York City suburbs, where Democrats performed so poorly during the 2022 midterms. The White House and the DCCC will be eager to see if Biden evinces any weakness here, given how important this area will be in determining control of the House this November.

Of course, most eyes will be on Wisconsin, the pivotal toss-up state that Trump narrowly flipped in 2016 (by 22,748 votes), only for Biden to even more narrowly (by 20,682 votes) win back in 2020.

The April 2nd results will give us our best look yet at how Biden and Trump are performing in the crucial regions of the Badger State. We’ll also get to chart where Wisconsin’s Republican Haley voters, and Democratic Uncommitted voters, reside and how they compare to other nearby states. After all, the Democratic Uncommitted effort managed to do better in neighboring Minnesota than in the much higher-profile Michigan campaign. 

April 23rd Pennsylvania Primaries: Attorney General, House, Presidential and Senate

There are a number of small-state primaries and caucuses scheduled between April 2nd and 23rd, but they all pale in comparison to the contests in the Keystone State. For unlike most other states, Pennsylvania will hold their Congressional and Row Office primaries alongside the Presidential race.

Pennsylvania’s Attorney General contest is a particularly appropriate example of an under-the-radar primary; an influential office in a competitive state with several candidates and no polling to forecast the results. 

For example, the Democratic primary consists of five serious contenders: ex-Philadelphia Chief Public Defender Keir Bradford-Grey, former Auditor General Eugene DePasquale, former Bucks County Solicitor Joe Khan, State Rep. Jared Solomon and Delaware County DA Jack Stollsteimer. 

Endorsements are spread far and wide for all five, although it’s fair to say Bradford-Grey’s secured the left flank with the support of the Working Families Party and EMILY’s List. 

Conversely, DePasquale holds the dual advantages of already winning statewide office, as well as being the only candidate outside of Southeast PA. So if the other four divide up that vote-rich region, DePasquale could end up winning by default. In fact, that’s pretty much what happened for John Fetterman in the 2018 Lt. Governor Democratic Primary.

Over on the Republican side, the state party is backing York County DA David Sunday over State Rep. Craig Williams. 

PA Congressional Primaries

In the Keystone State, there are a trio of Congressional primaries worth watching. 

First off, there’s the Republican primary in PA’s toss-up 7th District, represented by Democratic Congresswoman Susan Wild. Competing for the Lehigh Valley seat are State Rep. Ryan Mackenzie, National Guardsman Kevin Dellicker and PA Convention Center Director of Public Affairs Maria Montero.

With his elective experience and the support of the Koch-backed Americans for Prosperity, Mackenzie is the natural favorite.

Over in the Harrisburg-based 10th District, a half-dozen Democratic hopefuls are targeting Republican Congressman Scott Perry, under the belief that the incumbent is too conservative – and too controversial – for his increasingly purple district. 

Leading the pack is former local TV news anchor Janelle Stelson, who enjoys the endorsement of EMILY’s List. She’ll try to win the nomination over 2022 nominee Shamaine Daniels and retired Marine Mike O’Brien, among others.   

Lastly, out west in Pittsburgh’s 12th District, incumbent Democratic Congresswoman Summer Lee is facing a primary challenge from Edgewood Borough Councilor Bhavini Patel. 

Rep. Lee, a member of The Squad, is being targeted by pro-Israel groups who view her primary as a pivotal race. “The person in the middle is Summer Lee,” Democratic Majority for Israel President Mark Mellman explained. While he considered Reps. Jaamal Bowman and Cori Bush particularly vulnerable, as compared to more secure members like Reps. Alexandra Ocasio-Cortez and Rashida Tlaib; Mellman maintained that as for Rep. Lee “I think it’s hard to know exactly how vulnerable she is at the moment.”

Meanwhile Lee’s supporters are taking delight in pointing out that a pro-Patel PAC is receiving funds from Jeff Yass, the conservative billionaire who appears to be Donald Trump’s new guardian angel. 

PA Presidential and Senate Primaries

Here we have a similar dynamic to the one in Wisconsin, as both candidates will get the chance to test the waters in a critical toss-up state ahead of November. Furthermore, given how important the PA Senate race is to Mitch McConnell’s plans to take back the majority, it’s also an opportunity to check how well Republican David McCormick’s campaign against Democratic Sen. Bob Casey is going.

April 30th: NY-26 Special Election

If you remember back in February, New York Democrats were able to flip NY-3, George Santos’ old seat. This victory not only helped them narrow the GOP House majority, it also showed they could compete in the NYC suburbs after 2022, as well as providing evidence that the national polls were overstating Republican support ahead of November. 

Well, now Democrats face a similar test across the Empire State in Buffalo on April 30th. This time the party’s on defense and on more favorable terrain, as the 26th District is a D+9 seat. Nevertheless, a Republican win would undoubtedly cause panic in left-leaning circles. 

New York Democrats nominated State Senator Tim Kennedy for this contest, while the GOP are putting up West Seneca Mayor Gary Dickson.  

Finally, in the wake of GOP Congressman Mike Gallagher’s announced intention to resign in April, a Democratic win in NY-26 would trim the Republicans’ House majority to just an ultra-slim 217 to 214 margin.

As always, you can follow all of April’s live election results here at Decision Desk HQ!

Filed Under: 2024 Elections, 2024 President, House, Race Preview, Senate Tagged With: 2024 Presidential Election, 2024 Presidential Primary, Bob Casey, Dave McCormick, Donald Trump, Joe Biden, New York, NY-26, PA-10, PA-12, PA-7, PENNSYLVANIA, Pennsylvania Senate, Scott Perry, Summer Lee, Susan Wild, The Squad

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