I think it’s fair to say that, so far, 2023 hasn’t gone the way Ron DeSantis must’ve hoped it would back in January.
After all, DeSantis was arguably the biggest winner of the 2022 midterms. In a night filled with Republican disappointments, the GOP Governor stood out from the crowd by putting together an impressive 19-point re-election victory. Furthermore, thanks to DeSantis’ performance at the top of the ballot, Republicans also gained 4 House seats in the Sunshine State, all while adding to their statewide legislative majorities.
As a result, the morning after Election Day, DeSantis was featured on the front page of Rupert Murdoch’s New York Post with the headline “DeFuture”. The honor was the most explicit show of support from Murdoch, whose Fox News network also repeatedly showcased the Governor. In fact Murdoch, who unsuccessfully tried to deny Trump the Republican nomination in 2015-2016, was encouraging DeSantis to run in 2024 as far back as 2020.
DeSantis’ landslide, combined with a series of losses by Trump-aligned candidates, led to a sizable surge in the Floridian’s support. According to the RealClearPolitics 2024 GOP Primary average, DeSantis sat at 20.5% on Election Day 2022, over 31 points behind Trump. Yet by mid-January, DeSantis’ support had risen to 31.3%, just 13% behind Trump. Indeed some surveys even found DeSantis ahead of the former President.
Today, however, all of that feels like a lifetime ago. So what happened to cause such a drastic change? Well, there were a number of factors.
First of all, Donald Trump wasted no time rising to the challenge, launching his Presidential campaign on November 15th, 2022. Immediately upon jumping into the race, the ex-President went on the offensive against DeSantis, giving him the full Trump treatment of relentless attacks.
Nevertheless, DeSantis stuck to his preconceived plan of racking up legislative victories in the spring before finally announcing his candidacy in the summer. The issue, though, was that DeSantis largely abstained from responding to Trump’s haymakers. Therefore, Trump’s attacks tended to get far more coverage than DeSantis’ wins in Tallahassee.
On top of that, DeSantis earned especially poor reviews during his spring book tour. At the same time, the announcements of indictments in the New York City hush money case and the DOJ’s classified documents case ensured that Trump dominated the airwaves and the discourse.
The New York indictment was particularly impactful on the polls. For instance, when news of the charges first broke on March 30th, Trump was leading DeSantis by 15.8% in the RealClearPolitics average (45.9% to 30.1%). Afterwards, Trump’s lead steadily grew over the next few weeks until peaking at 36.9% on May 19th and 20th.
Meanwhile, DeSantis continued to struggle, with his announcement getting overshadowed by Twitter technical difficulties that derailed his audio-only kickoff event with Elon Musk.
Despite all that, though, there is a bit of a silver lining for DeSantis, as he’s no longer going in the wrong direction. For example, Trump’s lead on the day DeSantis jumped into the race was exactly 34 points. One month later, that advantage had fallen a bit to 30.6%.
Furthermore, it appears that the second indictment of Donald Trump isn’t having anywhere near the same effect on the polls. Since that June 8th announcement, Trump’s advantage has only risen by 0.6%, suggesting he may be hitting his ceiling.
Regardless, DeSantis and the rest of Trump’s Republican challengers face a steep uphill climb in the months ahead. The next major event in this race is set for August 23rd, when Fox News will host the Republican Party’s first 2024 Presidential debate. Trump is threatening to boycott this debate, which would leave us with six likely participants: DeSantis, Mike Pence, Nikki Haley, Tim Scott, Chris Christie and Vivek Ramaswamy.
For the moment, Trump is in firm control of the 2024 GOP primary, yet we’ve only just begun this campaign journey and there are countless opportunities for turmoil ahead.