The deep blue state of Maryland is the unlikely site of May’s most critical primary contest in the battle for control of the Senate.
On May 14th, Congressman David Trone and Prince George County Executive Angela Alsobrooks will compete for the Democratic nomination in Maryland’s open Senate race. The winner will advance to a general election match-up with popular Republican ex-Governor Larry Hogan, whose entry into the race suddenly makes this a seat Democrats can no longer take for granted.
Why? Well, despite Maryland being one of the bluest states in the nation – Biden won it by 33 points in 2020 – Hogan left office with an incredible 77% approval rating in early 2023.
As a result, early polls show Hogan with a solid lead over both Trone and Alsobrooks. Recent history, however, suggests that while popular former Governors may begin with an early lead, the state’s partisanship tends to eventually take over. Consider, for example, a pair of Democratic ex-Governors in ruby red states: Montana’s Steve Bullock in 2020 and Tennessee’s Phil Bredesen in 2018, who both saw early leads evaporate in the fall.
Nevertheless, this race could well be decided on the question of which Democratic candidate would be the strongest potential opponent for Hogan. To that end, Rep. Trone is arguing that he’s got the cash necessary to compete with Hogan’s warchest. After all, Trone is a multi-millionaire who’s already poured at least $54 million into his own campaign; and should he get the nomination, he’d allow the DSCC to skip Maryland and spread their cash to other, more vital Senate contests.
Conversely, Alsobrooks’ received the endorsement of most of Maryland’s political heavyweights. Among her supporters are Gov. Wes Moore, Senator Chris Van Hollen, Rep. Steny Hoyer, Rep. Jamie Raskin, former Senator Barbara Milkulski and The Washington Post’s Editorial Board.
Trone’s trying to negate this Alsobrooks advantage on endorsements by running a series of TV spots featuring testimonials, many of them from black officials and constituents, praising Trone.
All the while, Alsobrooks’ ads tend to emphasize her endorsements – by gathering together a giant crowd of her prominent supporters – as well as abortion rights, and the fact that she’s both demographically and financially distinct from the average U.S. Senator (and, implicitly, Trone).
That last commercial speaks to another factor in Alsobrooks’ favor; 32% of Maryland residents are African-American, making it the fourth-Blackest state in the nation. Of course, skittish Democratic power brokers might worry about Alsobrooks’ general election odds, thinking back to Cheri Beasley’s defeat in the 2022 North Carolina Senate race.
Maryland, however, not only has a larger Black population than North Carolina, but larger Hispanic and Asian populations too. It’s also a highly-educated state (48.55% have a bachelor’s degree, second-highest in the nation) while North Carolina ranks closer to the middle of the pack (34.91% and 22nd respectively). In the 2020s, one of the strongest political correlations is that between college education and Democratic support.
To put it succinctly, Alsobrooks can credibly make the case that she’s an electable candidate, even against a strong opponent like Hogan. At the same time, Trone’s struggled while walking the tightrope of running against a Black woman. Back in March, he accidentally used a racial slur and just last week had to remove a line from a TV ad – “the U.S. Senate is not a place for training wheels” – after receiving criticism.
There’s also a clear geographical divide in this race. On the one hand, Rep. Trone represents Maryland’s second-least Democratic seat, the 6th Congressional District, which runs from the state’s western border down to Montgomery County. Montgomery is Maryland’s most populous county, and Trone will need a strong performance there since Alsobrooks’ homebase Prince George ranks second. Altogether, though, Baltimore and its suburbs will likely prove to be the decisive region in this primary.
Finally, let’s close out with a look at the Democratic primary polls. Going back to November, every public survey found Trone ahead, until a new survey released today from Emerson found Alsobrooks up a single point, 42% to 41%. This poll caused the Trone’s margin in the FiveThirtyEight average to fall from 13% to 5.6%.
Furthermore, Emerson tested both possible general election match-ups, with Alsobrooks leading Hogan by 10 points (48% to 38%) while Trone came out ahead of Hogan by 11 points (49% to 38%). So while Trone did slightly better here, it’s still a blow to his claim that he’s the more electable candidate.
As always, make sure on May 14th to follow the live Election Night results for this contest at Decision Desk HQ, and don’t forget to read my day-after recap!