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Keystone State Primary Preview

April 18, 2024 by Nick Field

election resultsThe primary season’s been quiet for awhile now, but thankfully on April 23rd, we’re getting a host of intriguing matchups in the most crucial swing state of all: Pennsylvania. 

No Keystone State contest has gotten more attention than the Congressional primary out in Pittsburgh, where Rep. Summer Lee – the Squad member who first won office as a Bernie Sanders-endorsed insurgent in 2022 – is facing a challenge from Edgewood Borough Councilor Bhavini Patel.

In fact, according to one of DC’s Pro-Israeli interest groups, this contest could be the most important in the country. As Democratic Majority for Israel President Mark Mellman put it, Squad members Jamaal Bowman and Cori Bush are considered particularly vulnerable, while Reps. Alexandra Ocasio-Cortez and Rashida Tlaib are seemingly more secure.

“The person in the middle is Summer Lee,” Mellman explained. “I think it’s hard to know exactly how vulnerable she is at the moment.”

Given this reality, national pundits will surely read these results as a partial referendum on how the Democratic base feels about the Israeli invasion of Gaza. Yet local Democrats appear far more concerned with the domestic implications.

For instance, Republican mega-donor Jeffrey Yass gave $800,000 to the Moderate PAC, a Super PAC targeting Congresswoman Lee. At the same time, it was revealed that Yass – who’d previously kept his distance from Donald Trump – was the largest investor in the shell company that merged with Trump’s Truth Social website.

This news came just a few weeks after we learned that Trump had met with Yass; only to subsequently reverse his support of a bill that would require ByteDance, which Yass holds a significant stake in, to sell Tiktok. To top it all off, around this same time, rumors surfaced that Yass was now the front-runner to become Treasury Secretary should Trump win a second term.

Consequently, Congresswoman Lee frequently mentions Yass’ financial support of Patel in debates and TV ads. As a result, don’t be surprised if this message works and rallies the faithful behind the incumbent. 

Other Congressional Primaries

While PA-12 is the headliner, there are several other Pennsylvania Congressional primaries worth keeping an eye on. For instance, in the Harrisburg-based 10th district, Democrats are hopeful that former TV anchor Janelle Stelson can capture their party’s nomination and effectively challenge Republican incumbent Congressman Scott Perry. 

On the other side, the GOP establishment is coalescing around State Rep. Ryan Mackenzie, under the impression that he’d be the best general election candidate against Democratic incumbent Rep. Susan Wild in the toss-up 7th district.

Finally, Republican Congressman Brian Fitzpatrick faces another long-shot primary challenger in the 1st district. The Bucks County right-wing has long sought to supplant the Fitzpatrick family’s hold on the local GOP, but there’s no indication that they’ll experience any success this time either.

Democratic Attorney General Primary

There’s one last statewide primary we should touch on, the open Democratic Attorney General contest. Republican front-runner York County DA David Sunday is awaiting to see which of the five Democratic contenders emerge: ex-Philadelphia Chief Public Defender Keir Bradford-Grey, former Auditor General Eugene DePasquale, former Bucks County Solicitor Joe Khan, State Rep. Jared Solomon and Delaware County DA Jack Stollsteimer.

In such a wide-open contest even the right associations could be enough to push a candidate over the top. For example, Bradford-Grey cited her past appointment by Gov. Josh Shapiro in one TV ad, while a Stollsteimer spot featured his own photo alongside the Governor. Khan took this one step further by pointing out that his old law professor was none other than Barack Obama. 

All the while, Rep. Solomon is making the largest TV push, with the clever tagline of “the only candidate with both an ‘F’ from the NRA and 100% from Planned Parenthood”.

Yet Eugene DePasquale may be the best strategically placed contender, as he was born in Pittsburgh and ran for Congress in Harrisburg. With the other four candidates all residing in Philadelphia or the surrounding suburbs, DePasquale could pull off what John Fetterman did in the 2018 Lt. Governor primary: running up the score outside of SEPA, while letting his opponents all cancel each other out there.    

Whatever happens, you can track the live election results as always at Decision Desk HQ, and check out my day-after recap on all these races and more!

Filed Under: 2024 Elections, House, Race Preview Tagged With: 2024, Jeffrey Yass, PA-1, PA-10, PA-12, PA-7, PENNSYLVANIA, Pennsylvania Attorney General, Scott Perry, Summer Lee, Tiktok

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