After a month and a half of madness, we’re finally taking a (relative) breather in the Presidential race ahead of next week’s Democratic National Convention. Therefore, it’s the perfect time to check in on the too-often neglected Gubernatorial map.
It’s been over nine months since we last checked in on the Governor’s races, yet on the surface not much has changed: We’ve still got just two competitive Gubernatorial contests, in New Hampshire and North Carolina.
Either the Democratic Party (Delaware, Washington) or the Republican Party (Indiana, Missouri, Montana, North Dakota, Utah, Vermont, West Virginia) are heavily favored in the other nine elections for Governor taking place this November.
On the other hand, this is quite an intriguing pair of races, so let’s waste no time and jump right into it.
New Hampshire: Kelly Ayotte vs. Joyce Craig
Republicans in the Live Free or Die State were sad to see four-term incumbent Governor Chris Sununu pass on the 2024 race, leaving the party particularly vulnerable to defeat in this typically blue state. To counter that, the GOP recruited former Senator Kelly Ayotte.
We last saw Sen. Ayotte eight years ago, when she lost re-election by a super-slim 1,017 vote margin. Back then, Ayotte was one of Trump’s biggest Republican critics, even pledging not to vote for him after his Access Hollywood tape leaked. Perhaps she’s hoping that by running for state office, she can avoid being tied to Trump, the way other Governors like Sununu, Larry Hogan and Phil Scott have.
Ayotte actually makes that point explicit in one campaign ad by pledging “As Governor, I’ll keep us on the Sununu path”.
Along those same lines, she spends another whole TV spot seeking to convince voters that she won’t change the state’s abortion law.
Furthermore, with Harris holding a lead of about six to seven points over Trump in New Hampshire, Ayotte will need an appreciable crossover vote to win.
Therefore, it’s not a surprise that Democratic nominee Joyce Craig is emphasizing abortion and her own experience with a miscarriage in one of her campaign ads. At the same time, the former Mayor of Manchester is using her other TV spots to tout her record of lowering crime and building new housing.
Since the primary in New Hampshire doesn’t occur until September 10, there are no real polls of this match-up, although primary surveys do suggest it will be Ayotte and Craig advancing to November.
One advantage Ayotte holds going ahead is her fundraising, as she had $3.3 million cash on hand in June, while Craig possessed just $1.3 million. Ayotte will be looking to leverage this edge and to shift the trajectory of this race as we enter the fall.
North Carolina: Mark Robinson vs. Josh Stein
As a Pennsylvania native, sometimes I can’t help seeing echoes of past Keystone State races in this year’s election cycle. A prime example is this North Carolina Gubernatorial election, which bears more than a passing resemblance to Pennsylvania’s 2022 Gubernatorial race between Josh Shapiro and Doug Mastriano.
Both contests feature an incumbent Democratic Attorney General running for Governor against a fiery and controversial Republican nominee, who’s running far behind where a GOP candidate should be in a toss-up state.
So as you might expect, Dem AG Josh Stein is using most of his campaign ads to inform voters about all of GOP Lt. Gov Mark Robinson’s polarizing statements, with several spots devoted to Robinson’s comments about women and abortion.
For instance, three separate commercials all include Robinson’s assertion that “abortion in this country is not about protecting the lives of mothers. It’s about killing a child because you weren’t responsible enough to keep your skirt down.” In an attempt to counter this line of attack, Robinson and his wife filmed their own ad describing her abortion.
At this moment, our DDHQ/The Hill average of this race puts Stein at 42.9% and Robinson at 37.3%. All the while, Trump maintains a slim advantage over Harris in the Tar Heel State, as the Democratic Presidential nominee makes a new push to flip the state’s 16 electoral votes.
Remember, outgoing Democratic Governor Roy Cooper won in 2016 and 2020 by 0.22% and 4.51% respectively, on the same ballots as Hillary Clinton and Joe Biden when they lost the state by 3.66% and 1.34%. So the hope among Democrats is that if Stein puts together a strong enough majority, he may be able to lift Kamala Harris over the finish line here and deny Donald Trump a critical state.
Stein will need a ton of money to do that, and luckily for him he has it, with just under $16 million cash on hand as of July. Robinson, meanwhile, was sitting on about $6.5 million in the bank.
That’s all for now, but we’ll return to these Gubernatorial contests again before November.