Another special Congressional election yields yet another Democratic overperformance. Let’s run through the results of Tuesday’s special Congressional election, as well as the day’s other consequential primary contests.
Ohio
While Republican candidate Michael Rulli won Tuesday’s race in Ohio’s 6th Congressional District, his margin was far behind the 35 points that retired Congressman Bill Johnson won by in 2022.
Rep. Johnson first won this Appalachian-based seat during the Tea Party wave in 2010 and it’s gotten redder and redder over time, with Trump winning over 72% in 2020. In fact, Sabato’s Kyle Kondik tells us, this district moved further to the right from 2008 to 2020 than any other in the nation.
Nevertheless, with all precincts reporting, Rulli ended up with 32,627 votes (54.7%) compared to Democratic candidate Michael Kripchak’s 27,062 votes (45.3%). Kripchak’s showing is particularly notable given that he spent only $7,000 on the race.
Of course, these results are so heartening for Democrats because for years they’ve pointed to their overperformance in the 2022 midterms and recent special elections as evidence that the polls are underestimating them.
Indeed, as Nathaniel Rakich of FiveThirtyEight points out, Democrats have done quite well in special elections since 2022, overperforming expectations by about seven points.
Nevada
On the other hand, Republicans are jubilant over their opportunities in the Silver State this November. Not only is Trump contesting Nevada’s 6 electoral votes, but the GOP is also targeting a blue Senate race and three of the state’s house seats.
In the Senate primary, the Republican party’s preferred candidate, Army veteran Sam Brown, secured a majority over several challengers. With about 85% of precincts in, Brown won 87,844 votes (59.6%), far ahead of State Rep. Jeffrey Ross Gunter’s 22,367 votes (15.2%).
As for those House races, in NV-1 2022 GOP nominee Mark Robertson is back again after holding off restaurant owner Flemming Larsen; 12,735 votes (48.4%) to 10,277 votes (39.0%).
Perhaps the most surprising result, though, came in the NV-3 Republican primary where conservative activist Drew Johnson took advantage of a divided field with 9,482 votes (32.0%). Meanwhile, former State Treasurer Dan Schwartz, ex State Rep. Elizabeth Helgelien and video game music composer Marty O’Donnell all fell short.
Finally, with only 85% of the vote in, we’ve yet to call the NV-4 Republican contest, although former North Las Vegas Mayor John Lee leads over Air Force veteran David Flippo; 14,492 votes (48.1%) to 13,666 votes (45.4%).
South Carolina
The most high-profile race of the night was undoubtedly in South Carolina’s 1st district, where Congresswoman Nancy Mace was seeking renomination. Rep. Mace might be the most polarizing House Republican in the country, a considerably competitive position. She’s also dealing with former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy’s effort to defeat her, as she was one of the eight Reps who submarined his Speakership last year.
Yet despite all this furor, Mace was able to avoid a run-off by winning 28,280 votes (56.8%).
Another contest that avoided a run-off, albeit much more narrowly, was in the 4th district where incumbent Congressman William Timmons held off a challenge from his right by State Rep. Adam Morgan. Timmons prevailed with 36,502 votes (51.6%) over Morgan’s 34,235 votes (48.4%).
One race that will see a June 25th run-off, however, is the GOP primary in the open 3rd district. Pastor Mark Burns and Air National Guard Lt. Col. Sheri Biggs will advance with 26,965 votes (33.2%) and 23,408 votes (28.8%) respectively.
North Dakota
Up in North Dakota, the support of Donald Trump helped Congressman Kelly Armstrong win the GOP Gubernatorial primary over next-in-line Lt. Governor Tammy Miller.
Ultimately it wasn’t that close either. With almost all the precincts in, Armstrong is far ahead with 67,706 votes (73.2%), while Miller got just 24,785 votes (26.8%).
To replace Rep. Armstrong in the House, Julie Fedorchak prevailed over the crowded field to win the GOP nomination. Once again, it seems Trump’s endorsement made the difference. Fedorchak finished with 43,137 votes (46.0%), ahead of top runner-up Rick Becker’s 27,771 votes (29.6%).
Maine
Finally, in the Pine Tree State, a pair of Republican State Reps battled for the right to take on Congressman Jared Golden in the highly competitive Trump/Dem 2nd Congressional District. Party favorite Austin Theriault easily won with 21,782 votes (66.6%) over Michael Soboleski’s 10,909 votes (33.4%).