We had another New York Special House Election last night, although this one wasn’t quite as exciting as February’s contest.
Previously, New York Democrats managed to flip disgraced Republican former Congresswoman George Santos’ seat and got a small measure of revenge in the state that powered the GOP to the House majority in 2022.
This time, though, Dems were merely defending an already blue seat that opened up after Rep. Brian Higgins resigned last November. New York’s 26th Congressional District consists of Buffalo and its surrounding suburbs, with parts of both Erie and Niagara Counties. It’s rated as a D+9 seat, where Joe Biden won by twenty-seven points in 2020.
The Democratic nominee in this contest was State Senator Timothy Kennedy, while the Republicans put up West Seneca Mayor Gary Dickson. Kennedy was far and away the front-runner as he spent over $1 million, while Dickson’s expenditures came to just $21,000.
Over the past few weeks, Kennedy made two campaign videos: one the standard biographical spot and the other a testimonial from a mother whose son was shot during the 2022 Buffalo supermarket shooting.
With nearly all of precincts in, Kennedy received 46,527 votes (68.2%) compared to Dickson’s 21,685 votes (31.8%).
The only previous contest under these district lines took place in 2022, when Rep. Higgins won 156,883 votes (63.9%) against Republican nominee Steven Sams’ 88,339 votes (36.0%). So Kennedy performed about four points better than that in this special election, and about nine points better than President Biden did in 2020.
Kennedy’s victory sets the margin in the House at 217-213 in favor of the Republicans with five vacancies. So, at this moment, the House GOP can only afford to lose one vote on any roll call.
The Month Ahead
The most closely-watched primary contest in May will likely be the May 14th Democratic Senate primary in Maryland, where Congressman David Trone is up against Prince George County Executive Angela Alsobrooks.
Rep. Trone’s got the money – he’s a millionaire who’s already sunk $42 million into this contest – while Alsobrooks has the endorsements of Gov. Wes Moore, Senator Chris Van Hollen, Rep. Steny Hoyer, Rep. Jamie Raskin and The Washington Post.
Furthermore, the general election in November is no longer considered a slam dunk for Dems since popular Republican Governor Larry Hogan is running.
Trone is contending that he’s the only candidate that can beat Hogan, yet Alsobrooks could be better able to appeal to Maryland’s diverse electorate. After all, Maryland is the 4th Blackest state in the nation, with African-Americans composing 32% of its population.
I’ll have a much more detailed primary preview of the Maryland Senate primary next week, but before we go, let’s touch on a pair of Texas Congressional Primary Run-offs that are set for May 28th.
Texas’ 12th Congressional District contains Fort Worth, representing about half of neighboring Parker and Tarrant Counties. This solidly R+12 seat is being fought over by Texas State House Majority Leader Craig Goldman and construction company owner John O’Shea.
Most of the Texas establishment – Gov. Greg Abbott, the NRA, many of his fellow legislators as well as the Editorial Boards of The Dallas Morning News and the Fort Worth Star-Telegram – is behind Goldman while controversial Attorney General Ken Paxton is supporting O’Shea.
Finally in Texas’ 23rd Congressional District, incumbent Republican Congressman Tony Gonzales is trying to fend off a challenger from his right in the form of YouTuber Brandon Herrera.
Texas’ 23rd is a R+5 seat that runs from the San Antonio suburbs, along the Southern border, all the way to the outskirts of El Paso. Rep. Gonzales has the support of Gov. Abbott and AIPAC, but gun rights proponents are pushing hard for Herrera.
Of course, you can follow the results of all these races at Decision Desk HQ.