Welcome to October and this Presidential campaign’s latest lull of uncertainty. At this moment, we’re less than two weeks out and all seven swing states look to be within the margin of error. It’s at times like these when people who spend far too much of their lives thinking about politics – let’s face it, people like myself – ponder the various paradoxes in the polling. … [Read more...] about Thoughts On The Ticket-Splitting Mystery
Senate
Senate Map Update: Dems Look to Florida and Texas as Montana Hopes Fade
We’re just about a month away from Election Night, and the Senate battleground is still shifting. Right now, I see nine competitive races, in a Senate that outside of those contests stands at 48 Republicans and 43 Democrats. As a result, the GOP’s got the inside track on gaining the majority, needing to win just two or three of these nine elections (depending on which party … [Read more...] about Senate Map Update: Dems Look to Florida and Texas as Montana Hopes Fade
Senate Map Update: Even After Presidential Shake-Up, GOP Retains Advantage
We’ve undergone a month of chaos in the 2024 Presidential election, but the fundamentals of the 2024 Senate remain tough to shake. Of the 33 Senate seats up for grabs, only 11 are represented by Republicans while 22 belong to Democrats or Democratic-aligned Independents. Since Democrats are widely expected to lose the open seat in West Virginia being vacated by Joe Manchin, … [Read more...] about Senate Map Update: Even After Presidential Shake-Up, GOP Retains Advantage
Diving Into Tuesday’s Results: Dems Over-Perform in Ohio 6th Special, While Nancy Mace Prevails Over Primary Challenge
Another special Congressional election yields yet another Democratic overperformance. Let’s run through the results of Tuesday’s special Congressional election, as well as the day’s other consequential primary contests. Ohio While Republican candidate Michael Rulli won Tuesday’s race in Ohio’s 6th Congressional District, his margin was far behind the 35 points that … [Read more...] about Diving Into Tuesday’s Results: Dems Over-Perform in Ohio 6th Special, While Nancy Mace Prevails Over Primary Challenge
2024 Senate Map Update: Dems Confront Formidable Landscape
It’s been six months since my last in-depth look at the Senate landscape, so it’s well past time for an update. At this point, most political observers put 24 of the 34 seats up for grabs in either the Safe Democratic or Safe Republican category. Among those safely red seats would be one flipped Democratic seat in West Virginia, where Joe Manchin is retiring. Consequently, … [Read more...] about 2024 Senate Map Update: Dems Confront Formidable Landscape