It's 79 days til election day and here is your Øptimus legislative model update. With less than 80 days left to go until Election Day, the general setup for the House and Senate continues to take form, with the House increasingly likely to change hands while the Senate remains favorable for Republicans. While there is still time left for this dynamic to significantly change, … [Read more...] about Øptimus Legislative Model: Update August 20, 2018
Predictions
A Quick Look at the State Legislative Chambers
Democrats have seen seismic shifts in special elections throughout the country since President Donald Trump’s inauguration, especially at the state legislative level. Democrats have picked up slightly more than 40 state legislative seats since the start of his administration, and we currently forecast them to pick up more on November 6th in most states. So far, … [Read more...] about A Quick Look at the State Legislative Chambers
August 14th Primary Wrap Up (CT, MN, VT, WI)
Connecticut: Democrat Ned Lamont and Republican Bob Stefanowski won their respective party’s nominations for Governor. “But Republicans believe they have a shot at making inroads in Connecticut, thanks in no small part to the man leaving the governor's mansion. Gov. Dan Malloy (D) has narrowly won two terms in office, though his approval ratings may be lower than any other … [Read more...] about August 14th Primary Wrap Up (CT, MN, VT, WI)
The Hot Seat: a Review of New Jersey’s 7th District
New Jersey’s 7th district is a precarious one for Republicans: a blue-shifting seat in what appears to be a decently favorable cycle to Democrats. While longtime moderate Republican incumbents Frank LoBiondo and district neighbor Rodney Frelinghuysen bailed out, Leonard Lance remained in for the fight of his political life. Indeed, his seat could be one of the first to flip, … [Read more...] about The Hot Seat: a Review of New Jersey’s 7th District
Øptimus Legislative Model: Update August 14, 2018
It's 83 days til election day and here is your Øptimus legislative model update. This weeks model incorporates primary results from KS, MI, MO and WA. Beyond these and the usual flow of individual race polling, the biggest change came from the national generic ballot environment, which shifted towards Republicans by 1.9 points, from D+6.9 to D+5. Net presidential approval … [Read more...] about Øptimus Legislative Model: Update August 14, 2018