It’s 79 days til election day and here is your Øptimus legislative model update.
With less than 80 days left to go until Election Day, the general setup for the House and Senate continues to take form, with the House increasingly likely to change hands while the Senate remains favorable for Republicans. While there is still time left for this dynamic to significantly change, in general the model seems to see-saw mostly based on generic ballot polling for the time being. This week, the pendulum swung back towards Democrats, whose advantage in the generic ballot national environment measure recovered back up to D+6.7.
Details about the modeling can be found here and sign-up is free.
GOP chances of retaining the House: 28.3% (-4.2%) with a mean prediction of 213 GOP House Seats (218 for control).
GOP Chances of retaining Senate: 84.8% (-4.4%) with a mean seat prediction of 50 GOP Senate seats.
Biggest House movers this week are: AK-At Large, CA-45, MI-07, MI-09, MN-07, NV-04, and WI-01
Biggest Senate movers this week are Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, and North Dakota
