In the 2012 Presidential Election, Democrat Barack Obama decisively defeated Republican Mitt Romney. Obama won 332 electoral votes and the national Presidential popular vote by nearly 4%. Despite this crushing victory, Obama headed into his second term in office without a majority in the US House. House Republicans lost the popular vote by 1% but still won a 234-201 majority in … [Read more...] about The US House Was Biased Toward Democrats in 2022: Why Republicans Are Developing a Geography Problem
Analysis
Can Democrats Hold the Senate in 2024? A First Look at the Imposing Senate Map
Senate Democrats are now set to spend two more years in the majority, and that’s before voters in Georgia decide the final seat in a December 6th run-off. By this point, of course, even the most casual follower of politics should know just how crucial every single seat in the upper chamber can be. Not only would a 51st Senate seat give Democrats some breathing room, and … [Read more...] about Can Democrats Hold the Senate in 2024? A First Look at the Imposing Senate Map
A Shifting Democratic Coalition: Keys to the 2022 Georgia Senate Runoff
For the second consecutive election cycle, Democrat Raphael Warnock will compete in a runoff for a Georgia Senate seat. Warnock won a plurality of the vote over the Republican nominee, Herschel Walker, but fell short of the 50% threshold needed to win the seat without a runoff. This time, the runoff will not decide the control of the Senate but is still essential for Democrats … [Read more...] about A Shifting Democratic Coalition: Keys to the 2022 Georgia Senate Runoff
How Will the Death of Roe Affect Partisan Realignment in the 2022 Midterms?
Through the majority of the 2022 midterm election cycle, the Supreme Court's decision in Dobbs v. Jackson (overturning the longstanding precedent of Roe v. Wade) has dominated headlines and analysis. Although Democrats enjoyed a strong late summer bump, ostensibly fueled by the decision, GOP candidates have substantially gained in polling completed throughout October, in the … [Read more...] about How Will the Death of Roe Affect Partisan Realignment in the 2022 Midterms?
How the Senate Landscape Has Shifted and What It Looks Like Now
Way back before Labor Day, I took an in-depth examination of the 2022 Senate landscape and the eight races poised to decide which party will hold the majority. Over the past month and half, of course, there’s been quite a bit of movement across the political landscape. So with just three weeks to go, I thought the best method to judge where we are now is to probe how all … [Read more...] about How the Senate Landscape Has Shifted and What It Looks Like Now