Less than a month ago, President Biden took part in the earliest Presidential general election debate in American history. Now, as a result of his poor performance in that debate, Biden was forced to drop out of the race.
There are few historical precedents for an incumbent President dropping out this late in the game. Harry S. Truman in 1952 and Lyndon B. Johnson in 1968, for instance, announced their decision to step aside on March 29th and March 31st respectively.
Instead, the best comparison might go all the way back to 1796, when President George Washington passed on a potential third term when his Farewell Address was first published on September 19th.
Shortly after announcing his withdrawal from the race on Sunday afternoon, President Biden issued a second statement endorsing Vice President Kamala Harris as his replacement and successor. A subsequent slew of Democratic officials, delegates, state parties and sympathetic unions and advocacy organizations joined in by endorsing Harris’ candidacy.
Altogether, it only took about 32 hours for her to secure enough delegates to clinch the Democratic nomination. To top it off, her campaign brought in a record $81 million in the first 24 hours after Biden’s exit.
On the other side of the aisle, such upheaval put the Trump campaign on their back foot for the first time in months. After all, Trump advisor Susie Wiles told The Atlantic’s Tim Alberta back on Super Tuesday, “I don’t think Joe Biden has a ton of advantages. But I do think Democrats do.” Suddenly, the Trump campaign needs to readjust their anti-Biden message into an anti-Harris message just over 100 days from Election Night.
So what does this all mean for the rest of this election cycle? Well, let’s dig into that by examining what a Kamala Harris coalition might look like and what kind of electoral path she’ll take. Then we can finish with a ranking of the various VP options for the Harris campaign.
Harris’ Coalition and Electoral College Path
Looming over all considerations of Kamala Harris’ candidacy is the prevailing perception that a Black woman would be unable to defeat Donald Trump. The fear is that, similar to what happened to Hillary Clinton in 2016, the bottom would completely fall out among white male voters and doom the entire Democratic ticket.
Conversely, Harris is well-positioned to appeal to some of the constituencies that were noticeably lukewarm towards another Biden candidacy. Consider Latino voters, for instance, with whom Harris has extensive experience as a three-time statewide victor in California. Some early polling already suggests she’ll staunch some of the bleeding Dems have experienced with them since Biden took over the party.
Meanwhile, a Harris-led ticket would also allow the Democrats to pivot back to abortion and appeal more explicitly to the college-educated white women who will likely make the difference in this contest. Furthermore, as the daughter of an Indian mother, Harris might well have an in-road to Indian-American communities in swing states like Georgia, Michigan and Pennsylvania.
Speaking of swing states, another vital question is what shifts in strategy – if any – Harris will make to Biden’s electoral map. Biden always prioritized the Blue Wall trio of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin; with the secondary trio of Arizona, Georgia and Nevada a tier below, while the campaign really hoped to add North Carolina as well.
Harris, however, might be a more natural fit for the diverse Sun Belt states. For instance, Georgia is the 3rd Blackest state in America while North Carolina is 7th. Pennsylvania and Michigan, on the other hand, are 15th and 20th respectively. Along those same lines, Arizona and Nevada rank as the 4th and 5th most Hispanic states.
So the Sun Belt route resembles Harris’ California constituency much more than the Rust Belt route, although this alternative still isn’t a simple solution. After all, the Vice President would have to win all four Sun Belt states in order to make up for the three Blue Wall states. As a result, Harris basically has to pursue both paths at the same time.
Of course this is a dangerous strategy since, in following both paths, Harris runs the risk of coming up short in both. This is exactly what happened to Hillary Clinton in 2016, as her desire to win stretch states like Arizona, Florida, Iowa, North Carolina and Ohio all fell short; while Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin slipped away.
Veepstakes Rankings
Finally, let’s conclude with a look at Harris’ fast-tracked VP selection process. These rankings are my own best guesses given recent reporting, and are listed within tiers by alphabetical order.
Tier One
Roy Cooper
Position: Governor of North Carolina (2017-present)
Age: 67
Prior Experience: North Carolina Attorney General (2001-2017); State Senator (1991-2001); State Representative (1987-1991)
In 2008, Barack Obama was looking for a wise, old hand as his Vice Presidential nominee, and found him in a then 65 year-old Joe Biden. Perhaps outgoing North Carolina Governor Roy Cooper can fill that role for Kamala Harris now.
The Vice President is reportedly quite close to Gov. Cooper, as the two served as state AGs together. Furthermore, Harris has already made a number of campaign trips to North Carolina, an appealing state with 16 electoral votes that’s remained tantalizingly out of reach for Democrats. As a result, a Harris-Cooper ticket would be her best chance to reshape the electoral battleground.
The main drawback is that Cooper may not want to be Vice President. After all, if you’re not planning an eventual Presidential run of your own, then the job doesn’t hold much appeal. Cooper could instead be Harris’ choice for Attorney General, a much more appropriate position for him.
Mark Kelly
Position: U.S. Senator from Arizona (2020-present)
Age: 60
Prior Experience: NASA Astronaut (1996-2011); United State Navy (1986-2011)
Unlike the other two candidates in this tier, Senator Kelly doesn’t have a well-known pre-existing relationship with Vice President Harris. Nevertheless, his resume speaks for itself.
A former astronaut, Kelly married Congresswoman Gabby Giffords and entered the national spotlight after Giffords was shot in January 2011. Eventually, Kelly took Giffords’ place in the political realm by running and winning for a special Arizona Senate election in 2020. After winning by two points in that race, Kelly expanded his margin to almost five points when he won his own term in 2022.
So Kelly would be a real asset towards winning toss-up Arizona’s 11 electoral votes. On the other hand, while Democratic Governor Katie Hobbs will appoint a Dem replacement for Kelly, that pick will have to defend the seat early in the 2026 midterms. Therefore, Majority Leader Chuck Schumer may be reluctant to let a popular purple-state incumbent like Kelly go.
Josh Shapiro
Position: Governor of Pennsylvania (2023-present)
Age: 51
Prior Experience: Pennsylvania Attorney General (2017-2023); Montgomery County Board of Commissioners (2012-2017); State Representative (2005-2012)
Quite simply, it’s nearly impossible for Kamala Harris to win the White House without Pennsylvania. On top of that, the Governor of the Keystone State just so happens to be one of the Democratic Party’s brightest young stars.
Josh Shapiro is not only a skilled orator, he also compiled an impressive electoral coalition when he won the Governorship in 2022. While Shapiro only assumed the top job in PA a year and a half ago, he’s still spent the past 19 years in elective office. Finally, he would be a historic nominee, becoming only the second Jewish official on a major Presidential ticket (after Joe Lieberman in 2000).
The biggest drawback to Shapiro is that he could upstage the top of the ticket, a bit like Lloyd Bentsen did to Mike Dukakis in 1988. At this point, however, with just about 100 days to go until Election Night, the Harris campaign can’t afford to hold anything back.
Tier Two
J.B. Pritzker
Position: Governor of Illinois (2019-present)
Age: 59
Prior Experience: 1998 Congressional Campaign
The least experienced official on this list also happens to be the wealthiest. In fact, after a rough few weeks of fundraising for the Biden campaign, it was theorized that Pritzker’s wealth could make him an especially attractive VP option. Although after a record 48 hours of fundraising for the Harris campaign, money no longer looks like a major problem.
Putting aside his cash, Pritzker is still a Midwestern Democratic Governor, even if his home state is reliably blue. There’s conflicted reporting, however, on whether Pritzker is actually being vetted for the job. Moreover, Harris doesn’t appear to have much of a pre-existing relationship with Pritzker. All this to say that Gov. Pritzker’s got the background to make the VP shortlist, but he probably won’t get further than that.
Tim Walz
Position: Governor of Minnesota (2019-present)
Age: 60
Prior Experience: U.S. Congressman (2007-2019); United States Army (1981-2005)
The second Midwestern Governor in this trio is Minnesota’s Tim Walz. A soft-spoken politico, Walz has a background made for the Veepstakes: extensive electoral experience in a Dem-leaning state, as well as a military background. He’s also got some nice approval ratings, although Republicans will surely try to connect him to the unrest that took place in Minneapolis after George Floyd’s murder in May 2020.
Minnesota gave the Democrats a scare when Hillary Clinton nearly lost it in 2016, thus Donald Trump’s been trying to win it over ever since. That determination was surely emboldened by reports of Biden slipping there during his campaign’s final days. So a Harris-Walz ticket would secure the state’s 10 electoral votes and potentially help out in neighboring Wisconsin too. Ultimately, if Roy Cooper’s VP candidacy doesn’t work out, then perhaps Tim Walz could fill the void.
Gretchen Whitmer
Position: Governor of Michigan (2019-present)
Age: 52
Prior Experience: State Senator (2006-2015); State Representative (2001-2006)
Governor Whitmer is considered one of the most talented politicians in the Democratic Party, so she should naturally be a favorite in this VP selection process. The reason she’s not, of course, is obvious. Throughout American history there’s only been three women on a Democratic or Republican Presidential ticket: Geraldine Ferraro in 1984, Sarah Palin in 2008, and Harris herself in 2020 and now 2024.
Therefore, an all-women ticket would be an unprecedented development and – the campaign might worry – too much of a shock to the system. Nevertheless, Whitmer is still reportedly being vetted for the job. A Harris-Whitmer team would be a double-down effort similar to Clinton-Gore in 1992, and give Dems an edge in the critical battleground state of Michigan. The question then becomes whether the reward is worth the risk.
Tier Three
Andy Beshear
Position: Governor of Kentucky (2019-present)
Age: 46
Prior Experience: Kentucky Attorney General (2016-2019)
In this third tier is a pair of telegenic, young men who are often discussed as possible VPs but who don’t seem to be getting vetted at this moment. Andy Beshear is Democratic royalty in Kentucky, a Governor and former Attorney General who is the son of Steve Beshear, who himself held both those offices as well. Despite that, though, a Harris-Beshear ticket couldn’t flip Kentucky’s 8 electoral votes. After all, the Bluegrass State last voted for a Democrat in 1996, and gave Trump 62% of the vote in 2020.
Yet Governor Beshear remains undaunted, making his case on TV over the past few days with some pointed barbs aimed at GOP Vice Presidential nominee J.D. Vance. So whether or not Gov. Beshear moves up the Veep list, he’s sure to make many more surrogate appearances over these next four months.
Pete Buttigieg
Position: Secretary of Transportation (2021-present)
Age: 42
Prior Experience: Mayor of South Bend, Indiana (2012-2020); United States Navy (2009-2017)
Speaking of someone seemingly publicly campaigning for the role, Secretary Pete Buttigieg’s also done several TV hits since Harris assumed control of the Democratic Party last Sunday. Buttigieg, of course, has arguably the highest profile of any contender on this list thanks to his 2020 presidential campaign. Surely the former South Bend Mayor must be given credit for taking everyone by surprise in that race and eventually winning the Iowa Caucus.
His main obstacle, however, is whether Harris truly wants him. Despite serving in the Biden Administration with him, her campaign doesn’t appear to be actively vetting him for the VP spot. Remember there was chatter in 2021 about the Harris camp resenting Buttigieg’s self-promotion; reports that now seem to be vindicated. Regardless, as the youngest person on this list, he’s got plenty of time to climb this ladder.