We’ve undergone a month of chaos in the 2024 Presidential election, but the fundamentals of the 2024 Senate remain tough to shake. Of the 33 Senate seats up for grabs, only 11 are represented by Republicans while 22 belong to Democrats or Democratic-aligned Independents. Since Democrats are widely expected to lose the open seat in West Virginia being vacated by Joe Manchin, … [Read more...] about Senate Map Update: Even After Presidential Shake-Up, GOP Retains Advantage
Biden Out, Harris In: What Kind of Campaign Will She Run and Who Will She Pick as Her VP Nominee?
Less than a month ago, President Biden took part in the earliest Presidential general election debate in American history. Now, as a result of his poor performance in that debate, Biden was forced to drop out of the race. There are few historical precedents for an incumbent President dropping out this late in the game. Harry S. Truman in 1952 and Lyndon B. Johnson in 1968, … [Read more...] about Biden Out, Harris In: What Kind of Campaign Will She Run and Who Will She Pick as Her VP Nominee?
Trump Picks Vance for VP Nominee: The Latest Twist in This Historically Chaotic Election
What a difference a few weeks can make! On the eve of the debate, we wondered whether anything could happen to truly shake this race up. Since then, of course, all hell’s practically broken loose. Vance Wins the Veepstakes Let’s start with the latest news first: on Monday afternoon Donald Trump announced Ohio Senator J.D. Vance as his Vice Presidential nominee. The … [Read more...] about Trump Picks Vance for VP Nominee: The Latest Twist in This Historically Chaotic Election
The Most Important Night of the 2024 Campaign: Examining the Background, Format and Stakes of the June 27th Presidential Debate
All of a sudden, the first 2024 Presidential debate is nearly upon us. Our earliest ever debate is coming at a time when this race is approaching an inflection point, with our own Decision Desk/The Hill average, the FiveThirtyEight average and the RealClearPolitics average all showing Trump ahead by less than a single point. Additionally, there’s considerable excitement … [Read more...] about The Most Important Night of the 2024 Campaign: Examining the Background, Format and Stakes of the June 27th Presidential Debate
Diving Into Tuesday’s Results: Dems Over-Perform in Ohio 6th Special, While Nancy Mace Prevails Over Primary Challenge
Another special Congressional election yields yet another Democratic overperformance. Let’s run through the results of Tuesday’s special Congressional election, as well as the day’s other consequential primary contests. Ohio While Republican candidate Michael Rulli won Tuesday’s race in Ohio’s 6th Congressional District, his margin was far behind the 35 points that … [Read more...] about Diving Into Tuesday’s Results: Dems Over-Perform in Ohio 6th Special, While Nancy Mace Prevails Over Primary Challenge