The conventions are over, September’s nearly here and the first – well, technically second – debate is looming. Therefore, it’s the perfect time to examine the new Electoral College landscape and both campaigns’ strategies to get to 270 electoral votes.
A rough consensus has emerged that there are currently seven toss-up states: Pennsylvania (19 Electoral Votes); Georgia (16); North Carolina (16); Michigan (15); Arizona (11); Wisconsin (10) and Nevada (6).
Under this scenario Kamala Harris is favored to win 226 Electoral Votes, with Donald Trump likely to get 219, leaving 93 up for grabs. On the surface, that’s pretty similar to the pre-debate situation when Joe Biden was still the Democratic nominee, with Harris only adding North Carolina to the competitive category.
Nevertheless, there’s been significant shifts in strategy that we need to dive into, starting with the Republican nominee’s new East Coast plan.
Trump’s East Coast Strategy
Joe Biden had a Blue Wall Strategy that was focused on winning back the once-core Democratic trio Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
Increasingly it appears that Donald Trump’s hopes rest on a different trio, in what we’ll call an East Coast Strategy. Earlier this month, a New York Times piece identified the top Trump targets as Georgia, North Carolina and Pennsylvania, since these three states would get the GOP nominee to exactly 270 electoral votes.
The Trump team’s shift is a reflection of the reality that the Harris campaign is scoring their best numbers among the swing states in Michigan and Wisconsin right now. In fact, our DDHQ/The Hill forecast currently rates Michigan as a “Leaning Dem” state, pushing Harris’ total up to 241 Electoral Votes.
As a result, the Trump campaign’s going all-in on Pennsylvania, the most likely tipping-point state at this moment, and where both campaigns are spending the most money.
At the same time, in a sign of just how importantly the Peach State is to Trump’s hopes, he recently publicly praised Republican Governor Brian Kemp. That’s about as close to an apology as Trump will give for this month’s comments disparaging the Governor and his wife. After all, he can’t afford to let Georgia slip away, like it did in 2020.
Harris Targets the Blue Wall, the West and the South
Since Harris is taking over the Biden campaign, she’s also inheriting his Blue Wall strategy. There’s considerable sense in this, as the latest New York Times/Siena polls found Harris leading in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
All the while, though, the Democratic nominee is also eagerly pursuing the Sun Belt path, where she’s making real gains. For instance, she’s closed the gap in Arizona and Nevada – two states where Biden particularly struggled – likely due in large part to her improvement with Hispanic voters.
Similarly down South, the huge population of African-American voters in Georgia and North Carolina could benefit Harris. The Tar Heel State’s a particularly ripe target for her, partly because the Biden team, who were less inclined to believe it was really up for grabs, frequently sent the VP there instead. As a result, Harris could recently brag about her 16th trip there over the past four years.
That aforementioned remark came during her first big economic address, which the nominee gave a few weeks ago in Raleigh. Furthermore, her fellow former AG (and outgoing North Carolina Governor) Roy Cooper got the opportunity to introduce Harris during the Democratic National Convention.
As for Georgia, Harris and Walz are making their first post-convention appearances there with another short bus tour culminating with a rally in Savannah.
All of which leads to the question: Just how important could these states turn out to be for Harris? Well, should she indeed win Michigan and Wisconsin, then she can afford a Pennsylvania defeat; so long as she takes one Western State (Arizona and Nevada) alongside at least one Southern State (Georgia and North Carolina), or wins both of those Southern States.
So, with just over two months to go until Election Night, keep these strategies in mind as you watch the fall campaign unfold.