All of a sudden, the first 2024 Presidential debate is nearly upon us.
Our earliest ever debate is coming at a time when this race is approaching an inflection point, with our own Decision Desk/The Hill average, the FiveThirtyEight average and the RealClearPolitics average all showing Trump ahead by less than a single point.
Additionally, there’s considerable excitement for this event, with a recent Echelon Insights survey for Puck finding that 63% of likely voters say they’ll watch the June 27th debate. Therefore, let’s take the time to break down how we got here, what the event will look like and why it’s likely to be so critically important.
The Background
Previously, the Commission on Presidential Debates had set the first debate for September 16th. Given that the RNC withdrew from the Commission back in April 2022, though, it always seemed doubtful that Trump would attend that event. As a result, it was unclear whether there would be any debates at all in this Presidential cycle.
Then on May 15th, this mist of uncertainty was suddenly punctured when the Biden campaign publicly challenged their opponent to a pair of debates that would cut out the CPD entirely. The proposal was reportedly the work of top Biden staffers like Anita Dunn, who were long-time advocates for moving on from the Commission. On top of that, the Biden team believed that pushing up the initial debate would help convince skeptical voters that the general election really will be a Biden-Trump rematch.
One explanation for why the Biden team was so proactive is that first debates are historically difficult for the incumbent President. To that point, every single one except for Bill Clinton in 1996 was judged the loser of their first contest. The usual explanation for this is that incumbents are rusty at the format, while the challenger had the opportunity to hone their skills in the various primary debates.
This time, however, since Trump skipped all the GOP primary contests both men will be dealing with a lengthy 1,344 day lay-off between debates.
Despite this reality, that same Echelon Insights poll found that 45% of voters thought Trump would perform better in the debate, while just 37% said the same of Biden.
It seems that this dichotomy may be the result of selective memories concerning each candidate; particularly the crowded and chaotic 2016 GOP and 2020 Democratic primary debates that Donald Trump thrived in and Joe Biden struggled with respectively.
Yet when we take a more complete and comprehensive view of their debate histories, we’ll find that Biden’s debate performances in the 2008 primaries are how he climbed to the top of the veepstakes list in the first place. He then went on to win every 1-on-1 debate he participated in thereafter: his 2008 and 2012 VP face-offs with Sarah Palin and Paul Ryan; his March 2020 contest with Bernie Sanders; and, of course, his two general election spats with Donald Trump himself.
To top it all off, viewers also felt that Trump failed to get the better of Hillary Clinton in any of their trio of 2016 debates. Consequently, Trump finds himself in a historically tough setting, while all the while he’s still expected to win.
The Format
The Thursday event will be hosted by CNN, with anchors Jake Tapper and Dana Bash acting as moderators. Tapper and Bash also ran the aforementioned March 2020 Biden-Sanders debate, which was held in studio during the early days of the COVID pandemic. Given the similar setting and participants, it’s quite likely that the June 27th face-off will most resemble this contest.
The entire debate is scheduled to last for 90 minutes and will be held in a studio with no audience, the first Presidential general election debate without an audience since the original Kennedy-Nixon series in 1960.
There will be no opening statements, with each candidate getting two-minute closing statements instead. Each question can take up to five minutes, with two minutes for the first answer, one minute for a rebuttal, another minute for a response to that rebuttal, and potentially a fifth minute should the moderators so decide.
CNN announced that Biden won their coin toss, and his campaign chose to give their candidate the right podium position. The Trump team then chose to speak last during the closing statements.
One potential wild card is that participants’ microphones will be cut off when it’s not their turn to speak. The Biden campaign proposed this new rule, no doubt remembering their first debate with Trump in 2020, when Trump repeatedly tried to hector his opponent.
So opposition to this condition could very well be the excuse Donald Trump uses if he does indeed drop out at the last moment. For years now, he’s falsely asserted that his microphone was deliberately tampered with during a 2016 debate. Not to mention his well-known enmity towards CNN and its moderators.
Regardless, the contest will also contain two built-in commercial breaks, a first for a general election debate. The rules make clear, however, that candidates won’t be able to confer with staff during those times.
The Stakes
They’re quite high, I’d say.
Sure, there’s the cynical counter that this event – like so many others – will pass without much effect. After all, it was only a few weeks ago that Donald Trump was convicted of a crime, and in that time President Biden gained just half a point.
That would ignore, however, the huge TV audience that these debates draw. For instance, the first Biden-Trump match-up in 2020 drew 73 million viewers while their second enticed 63 million (against an Eagles-Giants Thursday Night football game no less). Such numbers prove that debates truly do matter.
So if Biden is perceived as the winner, he very well may take his first sustained lead in the race since last year. Furthermore, Trump would be excoriated for agreeing to Biden’s terms, as well as for his pre-debate messaging strategy. Remember, Trump’s game plan to expose Biden as feeble and overwhelmed is basically the same strategy he employed during his ultimately unsuccessful 2020 debate gambit.
Conversely, a defeat would be absolutely devastating for President Biden. Under the original CPD plan, Biden would’ve had two more contests with Trump, with the second debate taking place just 15 days after the first one. This new Biden proposal, however, features a gulf of 75 days between the first and second debates.
Such a reality could very well be disastrous for the Biden campaign, with Democratic officials and voters suddenly questioning whether there should be a campaign shake-up before the fall. Moreover, it won’t be too surprising if a poor performance prompts calls to replace Biden as the nominee before the Democratic convention convenes in August.
There’s also the distinct possibility that Trump decides to skip the proposed September 10th contest in such a scenario, leaving Biden with no opportunity to recover. After all, Trump has a history of skipping debates, pulling out of seven such confrontations over the past three election cycles: one 2016 Republican primary debate, one 2020 general election debate and all five 2024 Republican primary debates.
Therefore, you can never really be 100% certain any debate involving Trump is truly going to happen until the event actually starts.
Whatever the outcome, this June 27th debate is poised to be the most impactful moment yet of this high-stakes contest.