There was yet another breaking development in the Presidential race, as a verdict was returned in Donald Trump’s NYC hush money trial. As you’ve no doubt heard by now, Trump was found guilty on all 34 counts of falsifying business records.
Trump’s sentencing hearing is set for July 11th, just four days before the Republican National Convention begins in Milwaukee. Given that Trump’s VP selection was already likely going to be announced around this time; we could very well see Trump announce his pick shortly after his sentencing hearing in an attempt to mitigate the potential political impact.
Whether the former President ultimately spends any time in jail – the charges carry a maximum sentence of twenty years – will come down to Judge Juan Merchan. Most legal experts believe it’s unlikely Merchan will give Trump jail time, although Trump’s frequent violations of his gag order may convince the Judge to give Trump a severe punishment.
Of course, any sentence Trump gets will be delayed by his appeal process, meaning that he may well have to win the Presidential election in order to avoid prison.
As for the always pertinent question – does any of this even matter? – we’ve already got some initial polling. Surveys from Morning Consult, Reuters/Ipsos, Echelon Insights, YouGov/The Economist and Emerson all initially showed slight movement towards Biden, although altogether Trump’s 1.1% advantage only dropped to 0.8% in our Decision Desk HQ/The Hill average but it has returned to it’s previous level with subsequent polling.
Additional polls from CBS/YouGov and ABC/Ipsos also found majorities of respondents, and Independents, agreed with the verdict and felt it hurt Trump. We’ll keep an eye out to see if this is a momentary blip, or the first suggestion of a significant shift.
Before moving on, however, I want to address one possible side effect of the Trump verdict that isn’t getting much attention: the impact on Trump’s immunity appeal currently before the Supreme Court. That appeal is holding up the January 6th federal prosecution of Trump and the NYC verdict could give cover to one or more Republican Justices (possibly Amy Coney Barrett and John Roberts) to rule against Trump.
Such a decision might give just enough time for Judge Tanya Chutkan to try the January 6th case against Trump before Election Day. Such an outcome – with a trial in the heart of the fall campaign – would be a constant reminder of his presidency’s darkest day while voters are making up their minds.
Ohio’s 6th District Special Election
Tomorrow, we’ll get our first cross-party special congressional election since April’s race in upstate New York. Democrats have performed particularly well in special elections over the past few years, a reality that’s become central to their hopes of defying the polls this year. So our first test of the post-Trump verdict political waters will come in Tuesday’s special election in Ohio’s 6th district.
The District runs along most of the state’s eastern border with West Virginia and Pennsylvania, in the Appalachian Mountains region. Republican Bill Johnson represented this R+16 seat from the 2010 Tea Party wave through to six months ago when he resigned to become President of Youngstown State University.
The Republican nominee in this contest is State Senator Michael Rulli, while the Democrats are running Air Force veteran Michael Kripchak. Kripchak didn’t have enough cash to create commercials, but Rulli produced a pair of ads touting his family’s grocery store chain and his time as a Trump convention delegate.
Given the contours of this district, the result isn’t really in question, so we’ll instead be watching the margin. Back in 2022, for example, Rep. Johnson won re-election here by a 67.7% to 32.3% margin.
You can track these results live on Election Night at Decision Desk HQ and make sure to also check out my day-after recap!