The suburbs of New York City were the site of the Democratic Party’s greatest embarrassment in 2022, but Tuesday night it provided them with a much-needed sigh of relief.
After a tough week for President Biden, the Democrats were able to flip expelled Rep. George Santos’ former seat in the special election for New York’s 3rd district.
With 93% of precincts in, Democratic nominee Tom Suozzi prevailed with 91,230 votes (53.9%) over Republican nominee Mazi Pilip’s 78,161 votes (46.1%).
New York’s 3rd Congressional District spans most of Nassau County, as well as a slice of Queens, where Joe Biden outperformed Donald Trump 54% to 44% in 2020. This Long Island enclave was once such a Republican bastion, however, that Ronald Reagan used to assert that “when a Republican dies and goes to heaven, it looks a lot like Nassau County.”
The 3rd district is also one of the four seats in the Empire State that Democrats lost in 2022, ultimately costing them their House majority.
In such a closely divided House, of course, one vote can definitely make a difference. After all, earlier Tuesday evening the GOP House leadership impeached Secretary of Homeland Security Alejandro Mayorkas by a vote of 214 to 213.
This result resets the balance of power in the House to 219 to 213 in favor of the Republicans, with one Democratic vacancy and two Republican vacancies to be filled this spring.
Furthermore, be on the lookout for what impact this result has on the debate in Washington concerning migrants and the border. In her television ads, former IDF soldier Pilip placed a heavy emphasis on the border and sought to tie Suozzi to Biden and The Squad.
Meanwhile, Suozzi’s spots struck back on the immigration attacks – one even showcased a 2018 Fox News interview of Suozzi defending ICE against progressive critics – as well as citing his past Congressional experience.
Finally, there was the weather factor, as it’s quite possible that a morning snowstorm aided Suozzi. After all, thanks to Donald Trump’s aversion to mail-in voting, the Republican Party is much more dependent on Election Day turnout.
Apparently about 11,000 more Democratic voters submitted a mail-in ballot through last Sunday, a reality that pushed a pro-House GOP Super PAC to resort to hiring plows to clear polling places. Although we’ll never know for sure, the weather could well have added a few points to Suozzi’s final margin.
Pennsylvania’s State House Special Election
From New York’s Levittown to Pennsylvania’s Levittown, let’s take a look at the other special election over in my neck of the woods.
At this moment, PA Democrats hold a razor-thin one-seat majority in the State House of Representatives. Currently, there are two vacancies in the lower house, the Democratic 140th and the Republican 139th: a Pike County/Wayne County seat set to be filled on primary day, April 23rd.
This particular vacancy was caused by State Rep. John Galloway’s elevation to a judgeship last November. In this contest, Pennsbury School Board Member and ex-Falls Township Supervisor Jim Prokopiak ran as the Democratic nominee against first-time candidate and Republican nominee Candace Cabanas.
The 140th district is traditionally a Democratic seat, in fact it’s been held by the Democratic Party ever since it was established in 1969. Back in 2020, the Republican nominee broke 40%, which was even better than the GOP candidate did during their 2010 wave year. Although that might be due more to Galloway’s 2019 DUI than any long-term trends.
Given how integral this seat is to PA Democrats, the DLCC elected to inject $50,000 into this race, and it appears that their investment paid off.
With just about all of the precincts in, Prokopiak received 6,462 votes (67.7%) compared to Cabanas’ 2,769 votes (32.3%).
Looking ahead, I’ll be back next week for my preview of the GOP South Carolina Primary, the Michigan Primaries and all the Super Tuesday contests!