It’s been six months since my last in-depth look at the Senate landscape, so it’s well past time for an update.
At this point, most political observers put 24 of the 34 seats up for grabs in either the Safe Democratic or Safe Republican category. Among those safely red seats would be one flipped Democratic seat in West Virginia, where Joe Manchin is retiring. Consequently, Republicans would altogether possess 48 seats compared to 42 seats for the Democrats.
Furthermore, only two of these ten competitive races are in Republican-held seats, while eight are Democratic-held. Therefore, if the Dems can’t pick off a GOP seat, then they’ll have to hold all eight of their own races – as well as the White House – to maintain a razor-thin Senate majority.
Now that we’re covered the circumstances of the playing field, let’s take a deep dive into those ten races that will decide control of the Senate, and examine how each of them is developing at this moment. Each race is accompanied by their current rating from the Cook Political Report, Sabato’s Crystal Ball and our brand new Decision Desk/The Hill Senate forecasting model.
Arizona
Cook Political Report: Toss-Up
Decision Desk HQ: Toss-Up
Sabato’s Crystal Ball: Leans Democratic
With maverick incumbent Krysten Sinema now officially stepping aside, it increasingly looks like a 1-on-1 match-up here between Democratic Rep. Ruben Gallego and Republican 2022 Gubernatorial nominee Kari Lake.
So far Gallego’s been able to outraise Lake, taking in $7.5 million to her $4.1 million last quarter. To be fair to Lake, fundraising seems like less of a priority for her than maintaining her relationship with the guy at the top of November’s GOP ticket. Apparently, Lake spent so much time at Mar-A-Lago that Trump himself suggested she should be spending more time out in Arizona on the campaign trail.
The latest polls have Gallego ahead in this race, while political pundits – and even Trump – believe that Lake is a weak candidate who likely cost the GOP the Governorship here two years ago. At the same time, Democrats are betting on Gallego performing well with Arizona’s Latino voters and perhaps even boosting Biden over the finish line in this crucial purple state.
Florida
Cook Political Report: Likely Republican
Decision Desk HQ: Likely Republican
Sabato’s Crystal Ball: Likely Republican
As recently as six years ago, the Florida Democrats nearly managed to defeat Rick Scott in an open Senate contest. Denying him a second term, however, is bound to be exponentially more arduous. Former Congresswoman Debbie Mucarsel-Powell, who lost her South Florida seat in 2020, is the favorite to win the Democratic primary on August 24.
Looming over this race is the question of the Presidential election, and whether this will be the first cycle where the Sunshine State isn’t seriously contested since 1988. The Biden campaign is still claiming that they’ll make a serious push, yet their spending suggests they aren’t counting on having a shot at Florida’s 30 electoral votes.
On top of all this, a campaign against Sen. Scott will be particularly expensive given the incumbent’s immense personal wealth. Back in 2018, then-incumbent Senator Bill Nelson managed to bring in over $28 million and was vastly outspent by Scott’s $68 million. That gulf is destined to only grow for Mucarsel-Powell, who is undoubtedly a long-shot here.
Maryland
Cook Political Report: Likely Democratic
Decision Desk HQ: Safe Democratic
Sabato’s Crystal Ball: Likely Democratic
If you told me six months ago that Maryland would be on this list, I would’ve said Larry Hogan must’ve gotten into the race. Well, here we are, as the popular former Governor puts this contest – at least for the moment – into the competitive category.
Just last week, Prince George County Executive Angela Alsobrooks won the Democratic primary here over Congressman David Trone. She’d already won over most of the establishment support in this race, so she can depend on surrogates like Governor Wes Moore and Senator Chris Van Hollen to rally Democrats behind her.
She’s also betting that her candidacy will inspire increased Black turnout in the state, potentially making up for some of the Independents who might split their tickets for Hogan. On top of that, she’s got a ton of breathing room, given that Maryland voted for Biden by 33 points in 2020. For all these reasons and more, this is likelist race to fall off this list first.
Michigan
Cook Political Report: Leans Democratic
Decision Desk HQ: Toss-Up
Sabato’s Crystal Ball: Leans Democratic
There’s another open Democratic Senate race up in Michigan, and while the primaries aren’t until August 6th, we can be reasonably sure that this will eventually be a matchup between Democratic Congresswoman Elissa Slotkin and Republican ex-Congressman Mike Rogers.
Ever since Trump surprisingly captured the Wolverine State in 2016, Michigan Democrats have responded by dominating the subsequent statewide contests. Furthermore, female Dem candidates have been particularly successful here, as evidenced by the victories of officials like Governor Gretchen Whitmer, Attorney General Dana Nessel and Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson. State Democrats rallied around Rep. Slotkin under the theory that she’s best positioned to continue this trend.
Meanwhile, one frequently discussed aspect of this year’s Michigan elections is the potential effects from the Israeli invasion of Gaza. Michigan is home to the largest Arab-American community in the nation, totaling about 150,000 or 1.5% of the statewide population. For now, it’s an open question whether this issue will ultimately harm Democrats in this must-win state for them.
Montana
Cook Political Report: Toss-Up
Decision Desk HQ: Leans Republican
Sabato’s Crystal Ball: Toss-Up
With Manchin gone, three-term Montana Senator Jon Tester is now the most endangered Democratic incumbent in America. Moreover, unlike the West Virginian, Sen. Tester is a fairly popular figure in his party, as he’s been nowhere near the gadfly that Manchin or Sinema has been at times. On the other hand, no Democratic incumbent’s frustrated Republicans more over the past eighteen years.
The GOP did get one break already, with Congressman Matt Rosendale eventually (after much back and forth) deciding to withdraw from the Senate race, thus avoiding a contentious primary with party favorite Tim Sheehy.
While most polls show Sen. Tester ahead, that might just be a function of name recognition. The incumbent does have a massive warchest at his disposal, holding over $11 million cash on hand. He’ll need every nickel of it, as he tries to hold on in a state that Donald Trump won by 16 points in 2020. The Senator is aiming to pull off a repeat of what he did in 2012, when he won a second term even as Barack Obama lost the state nearly fourteen points.
Nevada
Cook Political Report: Toss-Up
Decision Desk HQ: Leans Democratic
Sabato’s Crystal Ball: Leans Democratic
The latest batch of New York Times/Siena surveys caused their typical round of heartburn for Democrats nationwide, but that pain was probably most acute in Nevada. After all, President Biden received his worst numbers in the Silver State, while incumbent Senator Jacky Rosen found her expected Republican opponent Sam Brown within the margin of error.
While previous polls showed Rosen in a stronger position, it makes some sense that Nevada would be a headache for Democrats this November. It’s one of the few states that’s become more Republican over the Trump Era, and if Biden’s erosion of Hispanic support continues it will be hard for him to hold onto Nevada’s 6 electoral votes.
Whereas Rosen is depending on the vaunted Reid Machine to pull out yet another victory, Republicans are betting on the theory that Trump is winning over more and more Latino men, who will allow him to rebuild the traditional GOP Sun Belt coalition and win back the Senate majority.
Ohio
Cook Political Report: Toss-Up
Decision Desk HQ: Toss-Up
Sabato’s Crystal Ball: Toss-Up
This list is alphabetical, so this is really a coincidence, but you could easily make the case that the majority will be decided by this past trio of entries: Montana, Nevada and Ohio. Like Tester, Ohio incumbent Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown is seeking a fourth term in a state President Biden is likely to lose. After decades of being a bellwether, Ohio went for Trump by eight points in both 2016 and 2020, and there’s no reason to think 2024 will be much different.
Back in March, Ohio Democrats tried to better their odds a bit by running TV ads painting Bernie Moreno as too conservative, in the hopes that it would make him more popular with GOP primary voters. Moreno did indeed win that primary, although the endorsement of Donald Trump probably proved more pivotal.
At a certain point, though, candidate quality may not even matter. In 2016 and 2020, Donald Trump shared a ballot with a Senate race 67 times, and 66 of those times the winner in the Senate race was from the same party that won the Presidential contest in that state. Only Maine Republican Susan Collins was able to buck the trend that Brown and Tester are dealing with this November.
Pennsylvania
Cook Political Report: Leans Democratic
Decision Desk HQ: Leans Democratic
Sabato’s Crystal Ball: Likely Democratic
Bob Casey was also part of that sizable Democratic Class of 2006, although unlike Brown and Tester he’s never faced a serious challenge during his tenure. The son of a former Governor, Sen. Casey is political royalty in Pennsylvania politics, making it exceptionally difficult for his various Republican opponents to pull off a victory in the commonwealth.
2022 Senate candidate David McCormick, who barely lost that year’s GOP primary to Dr Oz, is trying to apply some lessons from that election. Whereas Oz wasn’t from Pennsylvania, and it’s unclear whether he ever actually lived there, McCormick is emphasizing his own PA history heavily in his campaign. The issue, however, is that while McCormick was born in Pennsylvania, he seems to spend most of his time in Connecticut, undercutting his whole line of argument.
All the while, Casey’s maintained the lead in every survey of this Senate match-up, even while Pennsylvania remains one of the most competitive states in the nation. Moreover, with McCormick choosing to embrace Trump, he won’t be able to run the strategy that allowed Pat Toomey to emerge victorious in 2016. Instead, McCormick’s campaign will live or die based on Trump’s ability to pull off another Pennsylvania upset.
Texas
Cook Political Report: Likely Republican
Decision Desk HQ: Likely Republican
Sabato’s Crystal Ball: Likely Republican
Cast your mind back to 2018, when Beto O’Rourke was going on Ellen and earning endorsements from the likes of Beyoncé and LeBron James. Yet, despite all this hype, Beto ultimately came up two and a half points short of unseating Republican Senator Ted Cruz.
In the six years since then Texas Democrats still haven’t broken through statewide, although the past few years weren’t exactly smooth sailing for Cruz either. No doubt you remember that infamous Cancun vacation during a widespread energy blackout, and if you don’t the DSCC is prepared to spend millions to remind you.
This time around Democrats nominated Congressman and former NFL player Colin Allred, a bit of anti-Beto. Although Allred is bringing in plenty of cash, he still trails Cruz in the polls. Four years ago, Biden got 46.48% in Texas – the highest percentage for a Democratic nominee since Jimmy Carter won it in 1976 – and he’ll probably need to top that number for Allred to have a real shot here. Nonetheless, it’s still likely the best offensive opportunity Senate Dems have this year.
Wisconsin
Cook Political Report: Leans Democratic
Decision Desk HQ: Leans Democratic
Sabato’s Crystal Ball: Leans Democratic
Finally, let’s finish with the most crucial state of all: Wisconsin. Like her PA colleague Bob Casey, incumbent Democratic Senator Tammy Baldwin won over 55% in her 2018 re-election race, despite running in a toss-up purple state. As a result, she’s considered one of the party’s strongest candidates in this cycle.
On the other side of the aisle, businessman Eric Hovde is Trump’s choice and thus the GOP front-runner. Hovde actually first ran for this Senate seat in 2012, but lost in the primary to former Governor Tommy Thompson and missed his first shot at a general election match-up with Baldwin. In yet another parallel to the Pennsylvania Senate race, Wisconsin Democrats are calling Hovde a California carpet-bagger.
Nonetheless, Hovde’s biggest problem right now is a mistake he made last month when he questioned whether anyone in a nursing home is truly able to vote. The Baldwin campaign jumped at the opportunity to accuse Hovde of hating America’s seniors, not-so-coincidentally the nation’s largest voting bloc. As a result, those recent NYT/Siena polls found her with the largest lead among all the Senate races surveyed.