We may well be approaching the beginning of the end of the 2024 Presidential primary season.
Joe Biden and Donald Trump are far ahead in the respective primaries and face only a single remaining contender, as Dean Phillips and Nikki Haley struggle to hang on.
Haley, in particular, faces a daunting challenge coming up in her home state of South Carolina.
South Carolina GOP Primary
While Haley may be a two-term Governor of South Carolina, she hasn’t been on a Palmetto State ballot since 2014. Since then, Trump’s won the state three times in the 2016 primary and the 2016 and 2020 general election contests.
Now it looks like he’s about to win his four straight competitive contest there. Our Decision Desk HQ/The Hill polling average finds Trump with 63.8% while Haley has just 33.1%. A result along these lines would be especially devastating for Haley, although she’s making it clear that she’s gearing up for the long haul regardless of the final margin here.
In addition to that final margin, I’ll also be watching what the total turnout in South Carolina will be and how closely it will come to the record excitement we saw in 2016. I compiled the below list of election turnout since the state converted from a caucus to a primary in 1992.
South Carolina Primary Turnout
1992 Dem: 116,414
1992 GOP: 148,840
1996 Dem: No Primary
1996 GOP: 273,583
2000 Dem: 9,657 (Caucus)
2000 GOP: 573,101
2004 Dem: 292,383
2004 GOP: No Primary
2008 Dem: 532,468
2008 GOP: 445,677
2012 Dem: No Primary
2012 GOP: 603,770
2016 Dem: 370,904
2016 GOP: 740,881
2020 Dem: 539,263
2020 GOP: No Primary
2024 Dem: 131,472
Michigan Primaries
Speaking of turnout, we’ll finally get a chance to compare opposing electorates, as Democrats and Republicans vote in Michigan on the same day. Iowa, Nevada and South Carolina all held separate Democratic and Republican primaries, while New Hampshire’s contest can’t tell us much since Joe Biden wasn’t actually on the ballot and Democratic delegates weren’t at stake.
The only two previous instances when both parties held competitive primaries on the same night in Michigan was 1992 and 2016. Coincidentally or not, the Democrats had higher turnout in 1992 and won in November, while the Republicans had higher turnout in 2016 and won in November too.
Michigan Primaries Turnout
1992 Dem: 585,972
1992 GOP: 449,133
1996 Dem: No Primary
1996 GOP: 524,161
2000 Dem: 19,160 (Caucus)
2000 GOP: 1,276,770
2004 Dem: 163,769 (Caucus)
2004 GOP: No Primary
2008 Dem: 601,219 (Delegates Stripped, Obama Not on Ballot)
2008 GOP: 869,293
2012 Dem: 194,887 (Caucus)
2012 GOP: 996,499
2016 Dem: 1,205,552
2016 GOP: 1,323,589
2020 Dem: 1,587,679
2020 GOP: 683,431
In the meantime, our Decision Desk HQ/The Hill average in Michigan shows Trump with 68.7% and Haley at 20.7%. So while Michigan’s open primary policy could theoretically help Haley – John McCain managed to win the state in his 2000 primary battle with George W. Bush – a landslide loss here will make it difficult for her to live up to her pledge to battle through to Super Tuesday.
Over in the Democratic primary, Rep. Phillips is setting up Michigan to be his last stand against President Biden. Phillips is hoping to appeal to the state’s Arab-American population by channeling their anger at Biden’s Israeli policy. Financial issues, however, are causing him to layoff campaign staffers in the run-up to this race. Ultimately, if he can’t hit the 15% delegate threshold here, it’s hard to see where else he can win any delegates.
Super Tuesday and California’s Senate Race
This is all adding up to one of the most anti-climatic Super Tuesday contests on record. Should Biden and Trump sweep all the primaries, it will be only the second time that’s happened, with the first occurring on March 5, 1996 when Bill Clinton and Bob Dole both pulled off shut-outs.
That’s not to say, of course, that there aren’t intriguing high-profile primaries occurring on Super Tuesday. In fact, the most high-profile Senate primary of the year so far is being held on that day in California.
In their nonpartisan blanket primary system, the top two finishers will advance to November regardless of party, with four major candidates now fighting for those two spots: Rep. Adam Schiff (Democratic), Rep. Katie Porter (Democratic), Rep. Barbara Lee (Democratic) and former Los Angeles Dodgers First Baseman Steve Garvey (Republican).
Congressman Schiff – with the support of party heavyweights like Nancy Pelosi and Barbara Boxer – is leading in the polls, with Porter and Garvey battling for second place and Lee just behind both of them.
Because of this dynamic, the Schiff campaign is aiming to elevate Garvey in their TV ads in the hopes that California Republicans will then turn out for Garvey. Their theory is that a Schiff/Garvey match-up would virtually guarantee a Schiff victory in this deeply blue state that hasn’t elected a GOP Senator since 1988.
Meanwhile, the left can’t seem to unite behind challenging Schiff. Not only are Porter and Lee dividing the opposition, but Schiff also isn’t exactly an ideal liberal target. The Congressman managed Trump’s first impeachment, is a frequent MSNBC guest, and was even martyred when the House Republican majority kicked him off the Intelligence Committee.
Instead, the left seems more focused on a different Senate Democratic primary over on the East Coast. In New Jersey, First Lady Tammy Murphy is running against Rep. Andy Kim and indicted Sen. Bob Menendez. The nepotism connection, as well as Murphy’s Goldman Sachs background, are making her a much more attractive target for the Left.
Even without that grassroots energy, the California Senate primary will still be an exciting race to watch. Unfortunately, though, we’re not likely to know much on Election Night, given the Golden State’s notoriously slow vote counting.
Nevertheless, make sure to come back to Decision Desk HQ for live election night results for the South Carolina GOP Primary on February 24th and the Michigan Primaries on February 27th. Then stay tuned for my recap of those results!