2024 is nearly here, which means it’s time to familiarize ourselves with the upcoming Presidential primaries calendar.
As you might expect, the Democratic and Republican parties select their nominees in quite different ways. For instance, all the Democratic contests allocate their delegates proportionally, while Republican contests can be winner-take-all, proportional or some hybrid of the two.
Furthermore, Democrats determine their delegate counts through a formula using the vote totals received by the party’s 2012, 2016 and 2020 nominees in each state, along with that state’s electoral votes, plus the number of PLEOs (Party Leaders and Elected Officials) who serve in that state.
Meanwhile, Republicans determine their delegate counts based on how many GOP elected officials reside in each state or territory. When it comes to how those states and territories award their delegates, this great Ballotpedia map tracks those various systems.
Altogether, there are 3,945 pledged Democratic delegates and the nominee needs to hit a simple majority of 1,973 delegates. Conversely, there are 2,429 pledged and unpledged Republican delegates and the nominee needs to win a simple majority of 1,215 delegates.
Below is a running timeline of the Democratic and Republican primary contests, alongside the number of delegates on the line in each contest, and a month-by-month rundown of what the process could look like.
January
January 15: Iowa Republican Caucus (40 Delegates)
January 23: New Hampshire Democratic Primary (23* Delegates)
New Hampshire Republican Primary (22 Delegates)
While Democrats are restructuring their primary calendars, the GOP is sticking by the traditional Iowa/New Hampshire structure. Historically that’s meant a split-result, as the two states have never supported the same Republican candidate during a non-incumbent contest. So Donald Trump is aiming to defy history by holding off Ron DeSantis and Nikki Haley in both states.
On the other side, that asterisk for the New Hampshire Democratic primary concerns the likelihood that the state is stripped of all its delegates. As you may know, the DNC sought to elevate South Carolina – not so coincidentally the first state Joe Biden won in the 2020 primaries – to the kick-off spot on the 2024 calendar.
Nevertheless New Hampshire, with its stubbornly proud history and state law, is still insisting on holding their primary first. As a result, look for the DNC to sanction the state, much as they did to Michigan and Florida in the 2008 contest.
Therefore, President Biden will be the first incumbent to run a write-in effort here since LBJ in 1968. Johnson, of course, ran so poorly in that contest that Robert F. Kennedy jumped into the race and caused Johnson to drop out. Suffice to say, then, that Biden will also have defying history on his mind.
February
February 3: South Carolina Democratic Primary (55 Delegates)
February 6: Nevada Democratic Primary (36 Delegates)
February 8: Nevada Republican Caucus (26 Delegates)
Virgin Islands Republican Caucus (9 Delegates)
February 24: South Carolina Republican Primary (50 Delegates)
February 27: Michigan Democratic Primary (117 Delegates)
The Democratic primary officially begins with South Carolina, a move that rewards Congressman Clyburn and the other Palmetto State Dems. On top of that, should the party once again choose to give this heavily Black electorate first-place status in 2028, it will likely assist Vice President Kamala Harris.
Another state benefitting from this new calendar is Michigan, which has undergone a blue shift since Trump won it back in 2016. Biden will seek to lay down some groundwork here, as well as Nevada, ahead of November.
Meanwhile, the GOP primary will pick up with caucuses in Nevada and the Virgin Islands before moving on to South Carolina. Nikki Haley’s nomination hopes depend upon pulling off a surprise victory here over Trump in her home state.
March
March 2: Idaho Republican Caucus (32 Delegates)
Missouri Republican Caucus (54 Delegates)
March 3: District of Columbia Republican Primary (19 Delegates)
March 4: North Dakota Republican Caucus (29 Delegates)
March 5: Super Tuesday – Alabama Democratic Primary (52 Delegates)
Alabama Republican Primary (49 Delegates)
Alaska Republican Primary (28 Delegates)
American Samoa Democratic Primary (6 Delegates)
American Samoa Republican Caucus (9 Delegates)
Arkansas Democratic Primary (31 Delegates)
Arkansas Republican Primary (40 Delegates)
California Democratic Primary (424 Delegates)
California Republican Primary (169 Delegates)
Colorado Democratic Primary (72 Delegates)
Colorado Republican Primary (37 Delegates)
Iowa Democratic Primary (40 Delegates)
Maine Democratic Primary (24 Delegates)
Maine Republican Primary (20 Delegates)
Massachusetts Democratic Primary (92 Delegates)
Massachusetts Republican Primary (40 Delegates)
Minnesota Democratic Primary (75 Delegates)
Minnesota Republican Primary (39 Delegates)
North Carolina Democratic Primary (116 Delegates)
North Carolina Republican Primary (75 Delegates)
Oklahoma Democratic Primary (36 Delegates)
Oklahoma Republican Primary (43 Delegates)
Tennessee Democratic Primary (63 Delegates)
Tennessee Republican Primary (58 Delegates)
Texas Democratic Primary (244 Delegates)
Texas Republican Primary (162 Delegates)
Utah Democratic Primary (30 Delegates)
Utah Republican Primary (40 Delegates)
Vermont Democratic Primary (16 Delegates)
Vermont Republican Primary (17 Delegates)
Virginia Democratic Primary (99 Delegates)
Virginia Republican Primary (48 Delegates)
March 9: Guam Republican Caucus (9 Delegates)
March 10: Northern Marianas Republican Caucus (9 Delegates)
Puerto Rico Republican Primary (23 Delegates)
March 12: Democrats Abroad Democratic Primary (13 Delegates)
Georgia Democratic Primary (108 Delegates)
Georgia Republican Primary (59 Delegates)
Hawaii Republican Caucus (19 Delegates)
Mississippi Democratic Primary (35 Delegates)
Mississippi Republican Primary (39 Delegates)
Northern Mariana Islands Democratic Caucus (6 Delegates)
Washington Democratic Primary (92 Delegates)
Washington Republican Primary (43 Delegates)
March 19: Arizona Democratic Primary (72 Delegates)
Arizona Republican Primary (43 Delegates)
Florida Democratic Primary (224 Delegates)
Florida Republican Primary (125 Delegates)
Illinois Democratic Primary (147 Delegates)
Illinois Republican Primary (64 Delegates)
Kansas Democratic Primary (33 Delegates)
Kansas Republican Primary (39 Delegates)
Ohio Democratic Primary (127 Delegates)
Ohio Republican Primary (78 Delegates)
March 23: Louisiana Democratic Primary (48 Delegates)
Louisiana Republican Primary (46 Delegates)
Missouri Democratic Primary (64 Delegates)
Welcome to Super Tuesday! The first Tuesday in March features dozens of contests, with hundreds of delegates up for grabs. For all intents and purposes, anyone that can’t put together a strong Super Tuesday can’t win their party’s nomination.
That’s particularly true in the Republican contest, where delegate-rich states like California and Texas become winner-take-all if the top candidate receives a majority of the vote. Therefore, any realistic effort to block a third-straight Trump nomination must perform particularly well on Super Tuesday and carry that success forward to the March 12th and 19th contests.
To be honest, though, it would be a tremendous surprise if either Biden or Trump had not effectively sealed their nominations by the end of this delegate-heavy month.
April
April 2: Connecticut Democratic Primary (60 Delegates)
Connecticut Republican Primary (28 Delegates)
Delaware Democratic Primary (17 Delegates)
Delaware Republican Primary (16 Delegates)
New York Democratic Primary (220 Delegates)
New York Republican Primary (91 Delegates)
Rhode Island Democratic Primary (21 Delegates)
Rhode Island Republican Primary (19 Delegates)
Wisconsin Democratic Primary (82 Delegates)
Wisconsin Republican Primary (41 Delegates)
April 6: Alaska Democratic Primary (14 Delegates)
Hawaii Democratic Primary (22 Delegates)
North Dakota Democratic Caucus (13 Delegates)
April 13: Wyoming Democratic Caucus (12 Delegates)
April 18-20: Wyoming Republican Caucus (29 Delegates)
April 23: Pennsylvania Democratic Primary (146 Delegates)
Pennsylvania Republican Primary (67 Delegates)
April 28: Puerto Rico Democratic Primary (51 Delegates)
April traditionally is the showcase of the Mid-Atlantic primaries, and nearly all of them moved up to the first weekend of the month. Pennsylvania, however, couldn’t agree on legislation to make the move so they’re on their own instead.
Recent history suggests that April is in fact the cruelest month during long nomination fights. After all, Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton each hit their lowest points in April during their respective 2008 and 2016 primary campaigns. To wit, if either nomination is not sewn up by this point, Biden or Trump will surely be going through great pains as well.
May
May 7: Indiana Democratic Primary (67 Delegates)
Indiana Republican Primary (58 Delegates)
May 14: Maryland Democratic Primary (81 Delegates)
Maryland Republican Primary (37 Delegates)
Nebraska Democratic Primary (29 Delegates)
Nebraska Republican Primary (36 Delegates)
West Virginia Democratic Primary (20 Delegates)
West Virginia Republican Primary (31 Delegates)
May 21: Kentucky Democratic Primary (45 Delegates)
Kentucky Republican Caucus (46 Delegates)
Oregon Democratic Primary (56 Delegates)
Oregon Republican Primary (31 Delegates)
May 23: Idaho Democratic Caucus (20 Delegates)
Donald Trump effectively clinched the 2016 nomination when he won the Indiana primary on the first Tuesday in May, leading Ted Cruz and John Kasich to drop out of the race. It’s unlikely he’ll be as fortunate this time, however, as one imagines he’ll either have the nomination locked up or his competitor(s) will be content to take it to the convention.
June
June 4: District of Columbia Democratic Primary (20 Delegates)
Montana Democratic Primary (17 Delegates)
Montana Republican Primary (31 Delegates)
New Jersey Democratic Primary (107 Delegates)
New Jersey Republican Primary (49 Delegates)
New Mexico Democratic Primary (29 Delegates)
New Mexico Republican Primary (22 Delegates)
South Dakota Democratic Primary (14 Delegates)
South Dakota Republican Primary (29 Delegates)
June 8: Guam Democratic Primary (6 Delegates)
Virgin Islands Caucus (6 Delegates)
The primary season wraps up in early June, and in recent history, the 2008 and 2016 Democratic primaries weren’t resolved until this point. Barring an absolute catastrophe, Joe Biden won’t suffer this same fate.
July
July 15-18: Republican National Convention
Donald Trump’s legal troubles will hover over the 2024 convention, as it represents the last chance for any anti-Trump forces to officially deny him the nomination. Of course, all attempts by party leaders to steer the faithful away from Trump have so far failed. Would a criminal conviction alter this reality? We may well find out in the coming months.
August
August 19-22: Democratic National Convention
Finally, the primary season ends with the Democratic Convention, presumably with the nomination of Joe Biden and Kamala Harris. Anything else and the 2024 general election campaign will be off to an even crazier beginning than anticipated.