Ohio is preparing for a Special Election on August 8th, a stage for the heavily publicized and costly battle around Issue 1. Backed by the Ohio state GOP, a YES vote on Issue 1 would increase the difficulty for Ohio voters to pass constitutional amendments through ballot questions, requiring 60% of voters to affirm a new constitutional amendment, an increase from the current 50%. The ramifications of this change could significantly alter the state’s political landscape and determine the success of future state constitutional amendments.
One of the most notable implications of Issue 1 is its potential effect on an important amendment focused on enshrining the right to an abortion in the Ohio Constitution, slated for a vote this November. After the US Supreme Court’s recent overturn of Roe v. Wade, abortion is legal in Ohio in the first 22 weeks of a woman’s pregnancy. Ohio Republicans passed a much more restrictive 6-week ban, but a judge indefinitely blocked it, leaving the future of abortion rights in Ohio unclear. A recent poll shows that support for this amendment stands at 58%, comfortably above the current support needed to pass (50%) but slightly below the proposed 60% threshold in YES wins on August 8th. Furthermore, Issue 1 could cast a long shadow over national politics if fair district activists succeed in bringing a future ballot question regarding an independent redistricting commission to the table. A map produced by such a commission would be more beneficial to national Democratic interests than one crafted by the Ohio state legislature.
Recent polling suggests the road to success for Issue 1 is fraught with challenges, although two polls have ended up with drastically different toplines. While a Suffolk University poll showed a commanding lead for NO (57%-26%), a recent Ohio Northern poll determined a plurality of voters supported YES (42%-41%). Polling regarding ballot questions tends to be more unreliable than candidate horserace polling since framing and priming are more of a concern, and partisan depolarization makes results more difficult to predict. The task for Ohio Republicans, who have recently enjoyed dominance in statewide elections, is to rally conservative support for the proposition. Ohio is no longer a true battleground state; Governor Mike DeWine (who supports Issue 1) won re-election last November by a blowout 62-37% margin. The Republican votes are there, but the state GOP will have to work against the status quo and convince voters to limit their own ability to influence state law through direct democracy and ballot questions in the future. The battle surrounding Issue 1 has recently turned expensive, as conservative Illinois billionaire Richard Uihlein donated $1 million to a PAC supporting YES on Issue 1. Spending supporting or opposing Issue 1 reached $5 million between July 14 and July 28 alone, according to AdImpact, setting it up to be one of the most expensive elections in 2023.
The unusual scheduling of this ballot issue, during the lower turnout fall election session on August 8th, adds an additional layer of intrigue to the Issue 1 election. While lower turnout elections typically see lower turnout from heavily Democratic minority voters, potentially favoring Republicans, the pendulum could swing towards Democrats due to their stronger appeal amongst high education voters who tend to compose a larger proportion of voters in “low turnout” elections. Either way, Democrats hope to end their statewide losing streak on August 8th, securing a pivotal victory to prevent Ohio’s political landscape from transitioning from a tenuous to a firm Republican grip.