We have been doing polling and seat projection aggregation over here at DDHQ and as of this morning it looks like Boris Johnson is coasting to a potentially landslide win. All of the data we are using in this analysis can be found here.
Polling Aggregation
According to our polling aggregator, the Conservative Party is currently in the lead with 43% of the national vote. Behind the Tories stands the Labour Party with 33% of the vote, Liberal Democrats with 12.5% and the Scottish National Party (S.N.P.) at 3.7%. The remaining parties are currently polling at 3% or less. As the trend lines of our averages indicate, the improved share of Labour is correlated with a decline in the Liberal Democratic share. Not pictured, the improving Tory share is also correlated with a decline in the share of those voting for the Brexit Party. Both poll findings seem to indicate there may be a good deal of tactical voting on Election Day.
Seat Projections
YouGov released its final MRP model for the UK election yesterday and the headline grabbing quote, “…absolutely cannot rule out the 2019 election producing a hung Parliament – nor can we rule out a larger Conservative majority.” If you want to read up on how the YouGov MRP works (or how MRP works in general) you can check it out here. We don’t see it as much in the US since we have so many high quality district level polls (also our elections are structured different) but suffice it to say MRP is a good way to project this stuff out using a lot of sample in a multi-party parliamentarian elections. You can listen here to see what we at the Desk think (safe to say we all think Boris won’t be having any free time soon to paint those mini busses).
Below is the latest aggregation of all the seat projection models (including the YouGov one). As you can see the aggregation gives the Conservatives a comfortable lead.
Methodology
Our “State of the Race” analysis presents two views for looking at the current state of the 2019 UK general election. In our polling aggregator, we average all publicly available recent UK polls and weight them by relative recency as well as survey firm quantity to provide an accurate aggregated view of current public opinion. In our seat projection aggregator, we average seat projections from the twelve public forecasts released in the week prior to the General Election (4 Dec-present), with each seat projection updated daily or as publicly released. We include both polling and seat forecasts to capture the full scope of election day outcomes. While polling helps to uncover the full scope of popular opinion, seat projections help translate this opinion into the projected partisan composition of the next House of Commons of the United Kingdom.