Updates to Part 1: We at DDHQ yesterday moved TX-06 to Likely R, and FiveThirtyEight moved TX-24 to Toss-Up. The NRCC announced they would spend an additional 772K on ads in TX-24. Robert "Beto" O’Rourke's 2018 political coalition shattered the Texas Republican Gerrymander. Districts designed to safely reelect incumbent Republicans became marginal races. … [Read more...] about Competitive Congressional Races in the Lone Star State (2/3)
Texas
Competitive Congressional Races in the Lone Star State (1/3)
Everything is bigger in Texas, including the list of battleground Congressional districts. Both parties are contesting seats in the Lone Star state, with varying degrees of success. Texas’s congressional map was not designed to be this competitive – only one seat of 36 was marginal in 2012. The Republican-controlled State Legislature carved up Democratic communities and paired … [Read more...] about Competitive Congressional Races in the Lone Star State (1/3)
Donald Trump Should Forget Texas
Politics Twitter was shocked last week to see a Quinnipiac poll of Texas, at State Trump won 9 points in 2016, as a tossup, with a one point Trump lead. While many people couldn’t believe the result, it’s right in line with what the LeanTossup model has in Texas, and confirms our broader theory of the election: Biden has drawn back some amount of white non-College voters back … [Read more...] about Donald Trump Should Forget Texas