Doug Jones' (D) victory over Roy Moore (R) was one of the most remarkable election upsets of the past decade. Alabama - with an R+14 partisan lean - is one of the most staunchly Republican states in the nation. Prior to Doug Jones, a Democrat had not won statewide office in Alabama since 2006, when Jim Folsom Jr. (D) was narrowly elected lieutenant governor by defeating Luther … [Read more...] about State Spotlight: The Alabama 2017 Special Election
Senate
State Spotlight: A Look Back at Missouri 2012
Missouri Senator Claire McCaskill's (D) race against state attorney general Josh Hawley (R) is one of the key races that will decide control of the Senate in this November's midterm election. Despite Missouri's steady march to the right, McCaskill has persisted, serving as state auditor from 1998 until 2006, when she narrowly defeated Sen. Jim Talent (R) in the 2006 Democratic … [Read more...] about State Spotlight: A Look Back at Missouri 2012
Senate Model Comparison: Øptimus and FiveThirtyEight’s Predictions
Earlier today, FiveThirtyEight released their much-anticipated Senate model. We thought it'd be interesting to see how the Øptimus model predictions compare to theirs. The numbers below are all based off of our 9/11 model update and FiveThirtyEight's Classic model as of this afternoon. The two models work in very different ways- and we won't get too far into that element … [Read more...] about Senate Model Comparison: Øptimus and FiveThirtyEight’s Predictions
State Spotlight: Indiana 2012
Joe Donnelly (D) is one of the most vulnerable senators up for reelection this November, and he faces an uphill battle against Republican opponent Mike Braun. Donnelly's first victory - in the wake of Republican Richard Mourdock's comments about rape - was one of the more impressive feats of the 2012 election. Mike Braun - a businessman and former Indiana state representative - … [Read more...] about State Spotlight: Indiana 2012
Øptimus Legislative Model: Update September 3, 2018
With 9 weeks to go until Election Day, our model displays a continuing shift towards Democratic chances in the House while the Senate moves more modestly towards Democrats as well. The big takeaway this week is that 4 House races (WA08, KS03, MN03, OH12) moved 3% or more away from the GOP as Democratic IE spending started pouring in. The generic ballot national environment … [Read more...] about Øptimus Legislative Model: Update September 3, 2018