After the big movement in the model at the end of last week due to the record-breaking fundraising quarter by Democrats, the model settles down this week. The national environment continues to creep back up for Democrats, now sitting at D+7.8, though Trump’s approval rating has curiously increased at the same time, now sitting at only a net -7%. With two weeks left until … [Read more...] about Øptimus Legislative Model: Update October 22, 2018
Senate
Øptimus Legislative Model: Update October 18, 2018
As predicted, Q3 FEC reports shook up the race a bit, with House Democrats now overwhelming favorites to take a majority and Senate Democrats somewhat improving their standing (though Republicans are still strong favorites). The national environment begun to move back towards Democrats as well, after reaching a 2-month low of D+6.9 on Monday (it is now D+7.2). With less than 3 … [Read more...] about Øptimus Legislative Model: Update October 18, 2018
State Spotlight: Montana Senate
Montana is another key state deciding control of the Senate in this year's midterm election. Senator Jon Tester (D) is pursuing his third-term against Montana state auditor Matt Rosendale (R). Despite his deep-red state's R+11 lean, Tester is a proven commodity. After narrowly unseating incumbent Sen. Conrad Burns (R) in the 2006 Democratic wave, Tester managed an even more … [Read more...] about State Spotlight: Montana Senate
Øptimus Legislative Model: Update October 15, 2018
With just 3 weeks left until Election Day, our model is fairly confident in the outcomes of both chambers. While there is still time for change, and while great odds are not the same as a certain outcome, the Democrats are strong favorites to retake the House and Republicans are strong favorites to retain the Senate (and perhaps pick up more seats). The generic ballot national … [Read more...] about Øptimus Legislative Model: Update October 15, 2018
Øptimus Legislative Model: Update October 1, 2018
With 36 days remaining, our model continues to track towards Democrats in the House while holding steady for Republicans in the Senate. The generic ballot national environment shifted down to D+8 this week but was counteracted in the House by district polling that was generally favorable for Democrats. With new FEC data on the horizon for the next couple weeks, both parties … [Read more...] about Øptimus Legislative Model: Update October 1, 2018