With 36 days remaining, our model continues to track towards Democrats in the House while holding steady for Republicans in the Senate. The generic ballot national environment shifted down to D+8 this week but was counteracted in the House by district polling that was generally favorable for Democrats. With new FEC data on the horizon for the next couple weeks, both parties … [Read more...] about Øptimus Legislative Model: Update October 1, 2018
House
State Spotlight: Michigan, From 2016 to Today
Donald Trump's narrow victory in Michigan was one of election night 2016's bigger surprises. Despite its perennial battleground status, Michigan had not voted for a Republican presidential candidate since George H. W. Bush in 1988. Few 2016 forecasters thought Donald Trump was likely to break the streak. He proved many of them wrong, when his deep rural support - combined with … [Read more...] about State Spotlight: Michigan, From 2016 to Today
House District Spotlight: Illinois-12
Illinois' 12th congressional district - represented by Mike Bost (R) since his defeat of William Enyart (D) in 2014 - is another heavily white midwestern district that swung hard towards Donald Trump in 2016. Prior to Trump, some version of this district has voted for every Democratic Presidential candidate since at least Bill Clinton. After supporting Obama by 2 points over … [Read more...] about House District Spotlight: Illinois-12
Øptimus Legislative Model: Update September 3, 2018
With 9 weeks to go until Election Day, our model displays a continuing shift towards Democratic chances in the House while the Senate moves more modestly towards Democrats as well. The big takeaway this week is that 4 House races (WA08, KS03, MN03, OH12) moved 3% or more away from the GOP as Democratic IE spending started pouring in. The generic ballot national environment … [Read more...] about Øptimus Legislative Model: Update September 3, 2018