Everything is bigger in Texas, including the list of battleground Congressional districts. Both parties are contesting seats in the Lone Star state, with varying degrees of success. Texas’s congressional map was not designed to be this competitive – only one seat of 36 was marginal in 2012. The Republican-controlled State Legislature carved up Democratic communities and paired … [Read more...] about Competitive Congressional Races in the Lone Star State (1/3)
House
Competitive Seats: California 25
Democratic insiders did not expect to lose the 2020 special election for California’s 25th district. Since 2016, the presidential topline, voter registration statistics, and the demographic makeup of CA-25’s voter pool increasingly favor the Democratic party. Republican Mike Garcia navigated his way to a special election victory, but he faces significant obstacles to winning a … [Read more...] about Competitive Seats: California 25
Swing Seats: Arizona 6
Arizona is a frontline battleground state at every level of government. Prognosticators agree that Biden and Trump are in a close race for Arizona’s eleven electoral votes, albeit one with a consistent Biden lead in polling. We perceive Arizona’s Senate race as less competitive than the presidential topline, but this is because Democratic nominee Mark Kelly pushed the seat … [Read more...] about Swing Seats: Arizona 6
Swing Seats: Iowa 2
No major election rating site considered Iowa’s Second Congressional District, represented by five-term Democratic incumbent Dave Loebsack, a battleground in 2016. In contrast, Iowa’s First, the district directly north of IA-02 held by freshman Republican Rod Blum, was expected to be a close race. All election ratings sites viewed IA-01 as a Toss Up race, except Sabato’s … [Read more...] about Swing Seats: Iowa 2
Turning Texas Blue, It’s Not Just About Biden, The Senate, Or Even The House. State Legislatures Are Important Too.
Ah, Blue Texas, the dream of so many, you may be here. Sunday saw two polls - a University of Texas at Tyler poll showing Biden +5 and a CBS/YouGov showing Trump +1 - both showing Democrats competitive in the Lone Star State, and reignited the 18 month long debate about whether the Biden campaign should just throw everything at the core map or expand into Texas, Georgia, Iowa, … [Read more...] about Turning Texas Blue, It’s Not Just About Biden, The Senate, Or Even The House. State Legislatures Are Important Too.