The strength of education polarization broke historical precedent in 2022 US House races, overpowering “down-ballot lag,” which occurs when changes in partisan patterns appear first at the presidential level, to drive continued realignment during this midterm cycle. Education polarization drove rapid and notable realignment between the 2012 and 2020 presidential elections, and … [Read more...] about Roe Overturn Led to Historic Realignment in 2022 Midterms
forecasting
DDHQ News Spotlight: Democrats Don’t Want Biden in 2024, Republicans Iffy on Trump
Morning Headlines Most Democrats don't want President Joe Biden to run for re-election in 2024. A New York Times/Siena poll found Biden's approval at 33%, an alarmingly low level that casts serious doubt over the incumbent's electability in the next presidential election. Widespread concerns over the state of the economy, specifically inflation, have soured the national … [Read more...] about DDHQ News Spotlight: Democrats Don’t Want Biden in 2024, Republicans Iffy on Trump
Øptimus Legislative Model: Update September 17, 2018
With 50 days left until Election Day, our model moves slightly towards Republicans this week in the aggregate. The generic ballot national environment continued to go up for Democrats, now sitting at D+9.3, but the past week featured nearly 70 individual district polling that was often good news for Republicans. Republicans’ chances to keep the House rebounded slightly over … [Read more...] about Øptimus Legislative Model: Update September 17, 2018