President Donald Trump carried Michigan by less than 12,000 votes in 2016, and did so mainly on a massive shift among whites without a college degree. His performance in suburban areas, particularly those populated mostly by whites with a college degree, dipped notably from Mitt Romney's, and this held true throughout the state. He also benefited from a drop in participation … [Read more...] about Why Donald Trump Is Heading To Western Michigan Next Week (It’s Not About His Base)
2020
Noah Rudnick’s Hot Seat: NY-03
New York’s Third Congressional District is a surprisingly competitive seat: Democratic Presidential candidates consistently win it by small margins and down ballot contests can get close even with token opposition. Two-term incumbent Tom Suozzi faces broadside attacks and scandals from home, granting an opening for either a Republican or progressive insurgent to hammer … [Read more...] about Noah Rudnick’s Hot Seat: NY-03
Net Favorabilty Changes in Presidential Election Cycles
I saw a conversation back and forth earlier this morning on the negative favorability ratings for nearly every Democratic nominee. A tweet by CNN contributor Harry Enten caught my eye: YouGov's latest poll: Dems lead the generic prez ballot by 49% to 40% over Trump, but none of the candidates (save Biden) have a positive net favorable score. (Schultz has by far the worst.) … [Read more...] about Net Favorabilty Changes in Presidential Election Cycles
The Baseline Problem
When Election Twitter explores the result of a special or regular election, comparisons to previous elections inevitably arise, as this niche world obsessed with numbers attempts to deduce what has changed, and, for the multitude of partisans involved, which side benefited from the race. Someone unfamiliar with the particularities of contests may just assume that the party … [Read more...] about The Baseline Problem
Over Three-Quarters of House Members Have Filed for Re-Election
Jon Prevo is tracking candidate filings for Decision Desk HQ in the run up to 2020. He took a quick glance at the data for us this week. In order to run for re-election, Congressional incumbents must file a few forms with the Federal Election Commission. The form filings this map shows are sitting incumbents of the 116th Congress as of March 6th who have filed FEC F2 forms. … [Read more...] about Over Three-Quarters of House Members Have Filed for Re-Election