On Tuesday, Chicago held the first round of their mayoral election. DDHQ extensively covered the election, including posting a nifty precinct-level map of results. The map features not just this week's results, but also some overlap maps of socioeconomic factors. Precinct-Level Results Lightfoot- Blue Preckwinkle- Green Daley- Red Wilson- Yellow Mendoza- … [Read more...] about Chicago Mayoral Election – Precinct analysis and looking ahead to the runoff
0ptimus
Øptimus Legislative Model: Update October 15, 2018
With just 3 weeks left until Election Day, our model is fairly confident in the outcomes of both chambers. While there is still time for change, and while great odds are not the same as a certain outcome, the Democrats are strong favorites to retake the House and Republicans are strong favorites to retain the Senate (and perhaps pick up more seats). The generic ballot national … [Read more...] about Øptimus Legislative Model: Update October 15, 2018
Øptimus Legislative Model: Update September 17, 2018
With 50 days left until Election Day, our model moves slightly towards Republicans this week in the aggregate. The generic ballot national environment continued to go up for Democrats, now sitting at D+9.3, but the past week featured nearly 70 individual district polling that was often good news for Republicans. Republicans’ chances to keep the House rebounded slightly over … [Read more...] about Øptimus Legislative Model: Update September 17, 2018
Senate Model Comparison: Øptimus and FiveThirtyEight’s Predictions
Earlier today, FiveThirtyEight released their much-anticipated Senate model. We thought it'd be interesting to see how the Øptimus model predictions compare to theirs. The numbers below are all based off of our 9/11 model update and FiveThirtyEight's Classic model as of this afternoon. The two models work in very different ways- and we won't get too far into that element … [Read more...] about Senate Model Comparison: Øptimus and FiveThirtyEight’s Predictions