With 9 weeks to go until Election Day, our model displays a continuing shift towards Democratic chances in the House while the Senate moves more modestly towards Democrats as well. The big takeaway this week is that 4 House races (WA08, KS03, MN03, OH12) moved 3% or more away from the GOP as Democratic IE spending started pouring in. The generic ballot national environment generates a good chunk of the aggregate shift as well, but at the individual race level, the strongest factors are the influx of independent expenditures and new polling. Overall, Republicans remain strong favorites to retain control of the Senate, while their chances to keep the House slip below 25% for the first time.
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GOP chances of retaining the House: 24.8% (-4.47%) with a mean prediction of 212 GOP House Seats (218 for control).
GOP chances of retaining the Senate: 82.2% (-1.39) with a mean prediction of 51-49 GOP majority.
Biggest House movers this week are NC-07, FL-07, NY-24, KS-03, FL-16, MI-06, NY-19, MN-03, WA-08, TX-31, OH-12 (details in links).
Biggest Senate movers this week are Montana, Nevada, and Arizona (details in links).
