With less than 50 days until Election Day, our model moves slightly towards Republicans for both chambers this week in the aggregate. The generic ballot national environment receded down to D+8.7 from last week’s high of D+9.3, fueling some of that movement, while the individual district polling of the past week was a mixed bag for both parties. With 6 weeks to go, the same trend as has developed over the past 3 weeks continues: Democrats are in a strong position in the House, while Republicans are in a strong position in the Senate.
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GOP chances of retaining the House: 18.8% (-2.2%) with a mean prediction of 210 GOP Seats (218 for control).
GOP chances of retaining the Senate: 86.7% (+2.0%) with a mean seat prediction of a 51-49 GOP majority.
Biggest House movers this week are NH-01, OH-01, OH-12, IA-03, and SC-05.
Biggest Senate movers this week are North Dakota, Missouri, Indiana, Florida, and Montana.
