With less than 30 days left until Election Day, our model took a turn towards Republicans this week, though Democrats are still strong favorites to retake the House of Representatives. The generic ballot national environment shifted down to D+7.3 this week, and fairly dire polling for Democrats in North Dakota has cut into their path to a Senate majority substantially. New FEC reports will be available next week, which will update the fundamentals of the race and, if Democrats have outraised Republicans significantly, could move our predictions back towards their side.
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GOP chances of retaining the House: 18.2% (+4.5% in the past week) with a mean prediction of 209 GOP Seats (218 for control).
GOP chances of retaining the Senate: 87.8% (+0.8% in the past week) with a mean seat prediction of 52-58 GOP majority.
Biggest House movers this week are NC-09 and VA-10.
Biggest Senate movers this week are North Dakota, Missouri, Montana, and Mississippi (Special).
