For the second straight week, the model is stable in the House and moves slightly towards Republicans in the Senate. The national environment is also stable, sitting at D+7.9 compared to D+7.8 last week. With just 8 days left until Election Day, we’re predicting a strong possibility of split chamber control, with Democrats retaking the House but unable to retake the Senate. However, both parties do have (slim) paths to control of either chamber.
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GOP chances of retaining the House: 5.5% (-0.1% since the 10/22 update) with a mean prediction of 203 GOP Seats (218 for control).
GOP chances of retaining the Senate: 91.2% (+3.6% since the 10/22 update) with a mean seat prediction of 52-48 GOP majority.
Biggest House movers are AZ-06, MD-06, WI-06, NY-24, OH-07, CA-25, CA-21, AZ-02, UT-04, MN-03.
Biggest Senate movers are Texas, Indiana, Mississippi (special), Montana, Arizona, Nevada, Michigan.
