As predicted, Q3 FEC reports shook up the race a bit, with House Democrats now overwhelming favorites to take a majority and Senate Democrats somewhat improving their standing (though Republicans are still strong favorites). The national environment begun to move back towards Democrats as well, after reaching a 2-month low of D+6.9 on Monday (it is now D+7.2). With less than 3 weeks left, this update resets the benchmark, though it does not heavily shift the conclusion: the door is closing on House Republicans, and there is a small opening for Senate Democrats.
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GOP chances of retaining the House: 6.4% (-10.1% since the 10/15 update) with a mean prediction of 204 GOP Seats (218 for control).
GOP chances of retaining the Senate: 86.8% (-5.4% since the 10/15 update) with a mean seat prediction of 52-48 GOP majority.
Biggest House movers are MI-11, AZ-06, IL-14, PA-06, CA-04, IN-09, NJ-02, IL-13, CA-10, NY-11, OH-12, VA-05, TX-23, KS-02, WA-03, GA-07, OH-01, OH-07, PA-05, VA-07, and VA-02.
Biggest Senate mover are Nevada, Texas, North Dakota, Arizona, and Mississippi (special).
