With just 3 weeks left until Election Day, our model is fairly confident in the outcomes of both chambers. While there is still time for change, and while great odds are not the same as a certain outcome, the Democrats are strong favorites to retake the House and Republicans are strong favorites to retain the Senate (and perhaps pick up more seats). The generic ballot national environment shifted down to D+6.9 this week. New FEC reports will be available this week, which will update the fundamentals of each race once more.
Details about the modeling can be found here and sign-up is free.
GOP chances of retaining the House: 16.5% (-1.7% in the past week) with a mean prediction of 209 GOP Seats (218 for control).
GOP chances of retaining the Senate: 92.2% (+4.4% in the past week) with a mean seat prediction of 52-48 GOP majority.
Biggest House movers are WA-03, PA-01, AZ-08, and MT-At Large.
Biggest Senate mover is North Dakota.
