As it was at the beginning of the week, the model is stable in the House and moved slightly towards Republicans in the Senate since Monday. The national environment shifted from D+7.9 compared to D+7. With just 8 days left until Election Day, we’re predicting a strong possibility of split chamber control, with Democrats retaking the House but unable to retake the Senate. However, both parties do have (slim) paths to control of either chamber.
Details about the modeling can be found here and sign-up is free.
GOP chances of retaining the House: 5.5% (unchanged since the 10/29 update) with a mean prediction of 203 GOP Seats (218 for control).
GOP chances of retaining the Senate: 93.1% (+1.9% since the 10/29 update) with a mean seat prediction of 52-48 GOP majority.
Biggest House movers are NC-02, PA-16, OH-07, IN-05, KS-02, FL-18, PA-13, NY-19, NY-01, CO-03, UT-04, NY-27, IN-09, FL-27
Biggest Senate movers are Tennessee, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Arizona.
