The new year will bring a new class of freshman lawmakers to the U.S. Capitol. Here is a look at the congressional candidates who are overwhelming favorites to be elected to Congress in November. Each are running in districts that are rated as Safe for their party by the forecasters at Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball. These candidates either won primaries for open seats or defeated incumbent lawmakers. The 2016 presidential results are also listed to give you an idea of how safe these districts are. (If you have not read Part 1, you can do so here.)

MISSOURI

• CANDIDATE: Cori Bush
• PARTY: Democratic
• OCCUPATION: Pastor, registered nurse, activist
• DISTRICT: MO-01 (St. Louis)
• 2016 PRESIDENT: Clinton+58.2%
• INCUMBENT: Lacy Clay (D)
• BACKGROUND: After an unsuccessful campaign against Lacy Clay in 2018, Cori Bush appeared in a Netflix documentary called “Knock Down The House,” which centered around progressive female candidates who ran for office in the 2018 midterm elections. Clay has been in Congress since 2001. He succeeded his father, Bill Clay, who held the seat for 32 years. Bush defeated Clay in a rematch this year and is set to become the first Black woman that Missouri has ever sent to Congress. A registered nurse and a pastor, the 44-year-old Bush was an activist in Ferguson following the killing of Michael Brown. She had the endorsements of progressive groups like Justice Democrats and the Sunrise Movement.

NEW MEXICO

• CANDIDATE: Teresa Legar Fernandez
• PARTY: Democratic
• OCCUPATION: Attorney
• DISTRICT: NM-03 (Northern New Mexico)
• 2016 PRESIDENT: Clinton+15.2%
• INCUMBENT: Ben Ray Luján (D)
• BACKGROUND: To the surprise of many, Democratic Sen. Tom Udall announced that he would not seek a third term in 2020. All three Democrats in the state’s U.S. House delegation were seen as potential candidates to succeed him. Ultimately, Rep. Ben Ray Luján decided to run for the seat. Luján was first elected to represent NM-03 in 2008 (succeeding none other than Tom Udall) and has since climbed the ladder in House Democratic leadership, working his way up to Assistant Speaker of the House. During the 2018 midterm elections, he served as chairman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC), the committee in charge of electing more Democrats to the House. His rise in leadership led to rumors that he might be a potential heir apparent to Speaker Nancy Pelosi. His decision to run for Senate opened up NM-03, which covers northern New Mexico. Attorney Teresa Legar Fernandez won a crowded primary with nearly 43% of the vote, defeating six other candidates. One of those candidates included controversial former CIA officer Valarie Plame, who has been accused of anti-Semitism. Fernandez earned the support of EMILY’s List and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of New York.

NEW YORK

• CANDIDATE: Ritchie Torres
• PARTY: Democratic
• OCCUPATION: Bronx City Councilman
• DISTRICT: NY-15 (South Bronx)
• 2016 PRESIDENT: Clinton+88.9%
• INCUMBENT: José E. Serrano
• BACKGROUND: Rep. José Serrano, first elected in 1990, is not seeking a 16th term this year, citing his recent diagnosis with Parkinson’s Disease. His retirement triggered a crowded Democratic primary in the 15th District. Giving Trump less than 5% of the vote, NY-15 is the bluest district in the entire country. It is also the poorest district in the country, with the median household income at $30,000 and about a third of the district’s residents living below the poverty line. Ritchie Torres, a city councilman from the Bronx, won the crowded primary to succeed Serrano. Torres is the first openly gay legislator in the history of the Bronx and is set to become the first gay Afro-Latino ever elected to Congress. Among the many candidates he defeated in the primary were DNC vice chairman Michael Blake, who had the backing of the Congressional Black Caucus. Controversial city councilman Rubén Díaz Sr., who has come under fire for homophobic comments, finished in third place. Progressive activist Samelys Lopez, who had the support of Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, finished in fourth place.

• CANDIDATE: Jamaal Bowman
• PARTY: Democratic
• OCCUPATION: Middle school principal
• DISTRICT: NY-16 (Westchester, North Bronx)
• 2016 PRESIDENT: Clinton+52.7%
• INCUMBENT: Eliot Engel (D)
• BACKGROUND: In one of the most high-profile congressional primaries of the 2020 cycle, middle school principal Jamaal Bowman defeated entrenched Rep. Eliot Engel, who chairs the influential Foreign Affairs Committee. This race gained national attention after Engel was caught on a hot mic saying “If I didn’t have a primary, I wouldn’t care” at a press conference on the recent protests in New York City following the killing of George Floyd. Bowman attacked Engel for that comment and sought to cast him as out-of-touch. He also had the backing of several progressive heavyweights, including Justice Democrats, Bernie Sanders and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. Engel was endorsed by Hillary Clinton, Speaker Nancy Pelosi and the Congressional Black Caucus. In the end, Bowman defeated Engel by a double-digit margin. This seat is so blue that no Republican filed to run for it this year, so Bowman is all but guaranteed to be sworn into the 117th Congress come January.

• CANDIDATE: Mondaire Jones
• PARTY: Democratic
• OCCUPATION: Attorney
• DISTRICT: NY-17 (North Westchester)
• 2016 PRESIDENT: Clinton+20.2%
• INCUMBENT: Nita Lowey (D)
• BACKGROUND: Longtime Rep. Nita Lowey is retiring this year. Lowey, 83, was first elected to Congress in 1988 and currently chairs the Appropriations Committee. Jones, 33, is an alumni of the Obama Justice Department. He went from running a longshot primary campaign against Lowey to being the frontrunner to succeed her. He triumphed in the crowded Democratic primary with 42% of the vote. The second place finisher, Adam Schleifer, finished with a distant 16%. He embraced progressive policies like Medicare-for-All and $15/hour minimum wage. He and fellow New Yorker Ritchie Torres are set to become the first openly gay Black men ever elected to Congress.

NORTH CAROLINA

• CANDIDATE: Deborah Ross
• PARTY: Democratic
• OCCUPATION: Former State Representative, 2016 U.S. Senate nominee
• DISTRICT: NC-02 (Raleigh)
• 2016 PRESIDENT: Clinton+24.4%
• INCUMBENT: George Holding (R)
• BACKGROUND: In late 2019, the North Carolina Supreme Court struck down the state’s Republican-drawn congressional map, saying that it was a Republican gerrymander. As a result of the ruling, legislators made North Carolina’s 2nd District significantly bluer. Republican George Holding, who was first elected in 2012, said that he would leave Congress at the end of his term after his district was altered. Former State Rep. Deborah Ross, who unsuccessfully challenged Republican Sen. Richard Burr in the 2016 U.S. Senate race, immediately became the frontrunner for the new district and easily won the Democratic primary against minimal opposition.

• CANDIDATE: Kathy Manning
• PARTY: Democratic
• OCCUPATION: Lawyer, 2018 nominee for NC-13
• DISTRICT: NC-06 (Greensboro)
• 2016 PRESIDENT: Clinton+21.5%
• INCUMBENT: Mark Walker (R)
• BACKGROUND: North Carolina’s 6th District also got bluer as a result of the State Supreme Court’s redistricting order. Lawyer Kathy Manning, who unsuccessfully challenged Republican Rep. Ted Budd in the 13th District in 2018, decided to run for the new solidly blue 6th District. Conservative Republican Rep. Mark Walker decided not to run for re-election after his district was significantly redrawn. He had hinted at a possible primary campaign against GOP Sen. Thom Tillis, but ultimately declined to run. Manning easily won the primary for the new district with 48% of the vote. Rhonda Foxx, who served as chief of staff to Rep. Alma Adams, finished a distant second with 20%.

OREGON

• CANDIDATE: Cliff Bentz
• PARTY: Republican
• OCCUPATION: State Senator
• DISTRICT: OR-02 (Eastern Oregon)
• 2016 PRESIDENT: Trump+20.1%
• INCUMBENT: Greg Walden (R)
• BACKGROUND: Walden, the ranking member on the House Energy Committee, has been the only Republican in Oregon’s congressional delegation for 10 years. He has been an outspoken critic of President Trump’s anti-immigration policies. He decided not to run for another term in 2020. Knute Buehler, the 2018 Republican nominee for Governor, entered the crowded primary for this rural district. A self-described moderate, Buehler struggled to win over the party’s base due to his pro-choice stances. State Sen. Cliff Bentz defeated Buehler and 10 other candidates in the Republican primary. Bentz, 68, is pro-life and is supportive of the President’s efforts to stop illegal immigration.

TENNESSEE

• CANDIDATE: Diana Harshbarger
• PARTY: Republican
• OCCUPATION: Pharmacist
• DISTRICT: TN-01 (Northeast Tennessee)
• 2016 PRESIDENT: Trump+57%
• INCUMBENT: Phil Roe (R)
• BACKGROUND: After Marsha Blackburn and Diane Black decided to run statewide, they were both succeeded in the House by men, leaving an all-male U.S. House delegation in Tennessee. But Diana Harshbarger, a pharmacist from Sullivan County, emerged from a fifteen-candidate Republican primary to succeed Phil Roe in Tennessee’s 1st District. She won the primary with less than 20% of the vote, overcoming a field that included state legislators and mayors. She will easily win the general election in this Trump+57 district and will be the only woman in the U.S. House from Tennessee. Roe, 74, is the top Republican on the Veterans Affairs Committee. He as diagnosed with prostate cancer in 2017 and flirted with retirement in 2018. He ultimately decided to run for another term, citing his duties as the chair of the Veterans Affairs Committee. While he easily won re-election, the Democratic takeover in the House resulted in Roe losing his committee chairmanship.

TEXAS

• CANDIDATE: Pat Fallon
• PARTY: Republican
• OCCUPATION: State Senator
• DISTRICT: TX-04 (Northeast Texas)
• 2016 PRESIDENT: Trump+53.6%
• INCUMBENT: Vacant
• BACKGROUND: Rep. John Ratcliffe was nominated to serve as President Trump’s Director of National Intelligence and immediately resigned from his Northeast Texas seat following his Senate confirmation. Because the primary election had already been held, Republican county party officials in the district had to hold a vote to replace Ratcliffe on the ballot. The overwhelmingly chose Pat Fallon, a State Senator and a former Air Force Veteran. The 4th District is one of the reddest districts in the state, so Fallon is all but guaranteed to win the general election in November.

• CANDIDATE: August Pfluger
• PARTY: Republican
• OCCUPATION: Former national security adviser to President Trump
• DISTRICT: TX-11 (Western Texas)
• 2016 PRESIDENT: Trump+58.7%
• INCUMBENT: Mike Conaway
• BACKGROUND: Mike Conaway, a longtime ally of President George W. Bush, has served in Congress since 2005 and chaired the House Agriculture Committee from 2015 to 2019. He is not running for re-election this cycle. 10 candidates entered the Republican primary for this central Texas district. August Pfluger, who served as one of President Trump’s national security advisers, managed to avoid a runoff. He earned 52% of the vote in the Republican primary in March. The second place finisher, businessman Brandon Batch, earned just 15%. The 11th District gave Trump nearly 78% of the vote in the 2018 elections, so Pfluger’s win in the primary is essentially tantamount to election.

• CANDIDATE: Ronny Jackson
• PARTY: Republican
• OCCUPATION: Former White House physician
• DISTRICT: TX-13 (Panhandle)
• 2016 PRESIDENT: Trump+63.1%
• INCUMBENT: Mac Thornberry (R)
• BACKGROUND: Mac Thornberry is one of the last remaining Republicans in the House who was elected in the 1994 Gingrich Revolution. He is currently the ranking member on the Armed Services Committee and chaired the committee from 2015 to 2019. His district, TX-13, is located in the Texas panhandle and includes all or parts of 41 counties. It gave Trump nearly 80% of the vote, so the Republican primary here is essentially the general election. Over a dozen candidates ran to succeed Thornberry. He endorsed Josh Winegarner, a former aide to Sen. John Cornyn. But President Trump endorsed Ronny Jackson, his former personal physician who he controversially nominated to lead the Department of Veterans Affairs. Winegarner finished first in the Republican primary with 39% of the vote to Jackson’s 20%. Because no candidate earned more than 50% of the vote, Winegarner and Jackson competed in a July runoff. Jackson defeated Winegarner in the runoff 56%-44% and will almost certainly win the November general election in this solidly red district.

• CANDIDATE: Pete Sessions
• PARTY: Republican
• OCCUPATION: Former Congressman from TX-32
• DISTRICT: TX-17 (Central Texas)
• 2016 PRESIDENT: Trump+17.5%
• INCUMBENT: Bill Flores (R)
• BACKGROUND: Rep. Bill Flores was elected in the 2010 Republican wave, defeating conservative Democratic Rep. Chet Edwards. The 17th District was the home district of President George W. Bush. The Prairie Chapel Ranch, which he acquired in 1999, is located in this district. Defeating Edwards was a personal mission for Bush, but he was unable to do so during his presidency. Edwards’ name was floated as a potential running mate for Barack Obama in 2008. Flores defeated Edwards in a landslide in 2010 and is retiring this cycle after five terms. Pete Sessions, who represented the Dallas-area 32nd District until his defeat in 2018, is running for TX-17 this year. Sessions was first elected to Congress in 1998. He chaired several powerful committees while he was in Congress. During the 2010 Republican wave, he chaired the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC), which is in charge of electing more Republicans to the House. Republicans had a net gain of 63 seats in the House that year. And until his loss to Democrat Colin Allred in 2018, he was the chairman of the House Rules Committee. The defeated Congressman decided to travel south on I-35 to run for the 17th District in Central Texas after Flores retired. Sessions was one of a dozen Republicans who ran for the seat. He finished first in the primary but was forced into a runoff after failing to earn more than 50% of the vote. Flores was not sold on the idea of Sessions succeeding him and endorsed his runoff opponent, healthcare executive Renée Swann. But after Sessions’ 54%-46% victory in the runoff, Flores said that he would support his former colleague.

UTAH

• CANDIDATE: Blake Moore
• PARTY: Republican
• OCCUPATION: Foreign services officer
• DISTRICT: UT-01 (Northern Utah)
• 2016 PRESIDENT: Trump+27.4%
• INCUMBENT: Rob Bishop (R)
• BACKGROUND: On paper, Moore seems like an unlikely candidate for Congress. The former foreign affairs officer had never run for office before. He defeated 11 other candidates to win a majority of delegtes at the nominating convention, and went on to narrowly win the Republican primary with 31% of the vote. The second place finisher, Davis County commissioner Bob Stevenson, finished with about 29% of the vote. Moore is set to succeed Rob Bishop, the dean of Utah’s congressional delegation and the ranking member on the House Natural Resources Committee. He decided not to run for re-election and hinted at a bid for Governor. He eventually declined to run, saying that he would be a “horrible candidate.” While Bishop didn’t run for Governor, Republican candidate Thomas Wright chose Bishop to be his running mate. The ticket was unsuccessful in the primary, finishing in last place with less than 8% of the vote.

WISCONSIN

• CANDIDATE: Scott Fitzgerald
• PARTY: Republican
• OCCUPATION: Wisconsin Senate Majority Leader
• DISTRICT: WI-05 (Milwaukee suburbs)
• 2016 PRESIDENT: Trump+20.1%
• INCUMBENT: Jim Sensenbrenner (R)
• BACKGROUND: Jim Sensenbrenner, 77, is the second-longest serving member of the House, second only to Alaska’s Don Young. He is also the dean of Wisconsin’s congressional delegation. First elected in 1978, Sensenbrenner chaired the Science Committee from 1997 to 2001 and the Judiciary Committee from 2001 to 2007. He represents Wisconsin’s 5th District, which includes the rock-ribbed Republican suburbs of Milwaukee. Following his retirement, 2018 Senate candidate Leah Vukmir was seen as a potential candidate to replace him, but she ended up passing on the race. State Senate Majority Leader Scott Fitzgerald entered the race and scared off other high-profile candidates. Fitzgerald has butted heads with Democratic Gov. Tony Evers, from voting to strip the Governor of powers after he was elected and opposing some of his coronavirus orders. He won the Republican primary with 77% of the vote against token opposition. This district, which includes parts of Waukesha County, voted for Trump by over 20 points in 2016. Fitzgerald is the overwhelming favorite in the general election.

 

NOTE

California’s 53rd District and Washington’s 10th District are both open seats that are rated as Safe Democratic by Sabato’s Crystal Ball. However, both of these states have jungle primaries and the general election candidates in each district are both Democrats. Therefore, I did not profile any of the candidates in either race. Louisiana’s 5th District is an open seat that is rated as Safe Republican. But they also have jungle primaries, and they are held on the day of the general election in November.