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Forecaster and model assessments of the House and Senate

September 17, 2018 by Brandon Finnigan

While we have our own House and Senate model, which currently give the Democrats an 80.13% chance of winning the former with 224 seats, and the Republicans an 84.77% chance of retaining the latter with 51 seats, it’s always good to get a second, third, and nth opinion.

So here is every public model’s current assessment of both chambers along with projected seat counts where available:

FIVE THIRTY EIGHT:

House– Democratic 81.9%, D seats 233

Senate– Republican 68.3%, R seats 51

THE CROSSTAB (from former contributor and friend of the Desk Elliott Morris): House- Democratic 77%, D seats 234

(no Senate model)

THE ECONOMIST: House- Democratic 71%, D seats 224

(no Senate model)

THE WEEKLY STANDARD/DAVID BYLER:

(no House model)

Senate- Republican 50.9%, R seats 50

DAILY KOS ELECTIONS:

(no House model) House Estimate: Democratic seats 209- Toss-up 30- Republican seats 206

(no Senate model) Senate Estimate: Democratic seats 43- Tossup 8- Republican seats 49

INSIDE ELECTIONS:

(no House model) House Estimate: Democratic seats 203- Toss-up 16- Republican seats 215**

(no Senate model) Senate Estimate: Democratic seats 45- Toss-up 5- Republican seats 50

SABATO’S CRYSTAL BALL:

(no House Model) House Estimate: Democratic seats 206-Toss-up 30- Republican seats 209**

(no House Model) Senate Estimate: Democratic seats 45- Toss-up 6-Republican seats 49

COOK POLITICAL REPORT:

(no House model) House Estimate: Democratic seats 192- Toss-up 42- Republican seats 201**

(no Senate model) Senate Estimate: Democratic seats 46-Toss-Up 6- Republican seats 48

CBS NEWS/YOUGOV:

(no House model) House Estimate: Democratic seats 221

(no Senate model) Senate Estimate: none yet published

**all prognosticator ratings are allocated to a party unless explicitly labeled a toss-up

Filed Under: House, Predictions, Senate Tagged With: US House, US Senate

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