Our current House tally stands at 211 Republicans and 200 Democrats. We have 24 outstanding races to project.
This post is to update you on where things stand and provide as much transparency as possible about the DDHQ race call team’s thinking as we evaluate these final races for a House of Representatives projection. Our thinking can and will evolve as more votes are dropped (how about that Maricopa drop last night!) which is the best way to be impartial- go where the data tells us to go and be flexible when additional data becomes available.
Below is a table of the outstanding races to project. Each race is divided into a table that looks like a potential GOP win (but may not be when we finally project it) and a potential Democrat win (but may not be when we finally project it) at this point in time. After each race call we put its theoretical seat number — so if we call NY-4 for the GOP next then it would be seat 212 in our tally and right now CA-27 would be the clinching 218 seat — this order is our best estimate right now BUT it can and will very likely change and be in a different order as votes are tallied and projections made
As you will see below we think the House is callable here in the next few days as these counties release more ballots in key districts. Performing as expected for CA GOP incumbents will be the core reason why the GOP wins the House with these remaining outstanding seats. The Democrats have a very real path to retaining the House but they need some favorable trends in CA and some of these flippable districts in OR and AZ. The next few days’ vote releases will tell us a lot.
The uncalled races fall into two categories for us…those where we need to confirm officials have completed their count and those where we know officials are still in the process of counting and reporting votes.
You can see full DDHQ results here.
Ordered by which candidate is currently leading (not who we think will ultimately win)
Races in yellow are judged to be most likely to flip from current leader.