Morning Headlines
- Most Democrats don’t want President Joe Biden to run for re-election in 2024. A New York Times/Siena poll found Biden’s approval at 33%, an alarmingly low level that casts serious doubt over the incumbent’s electability in the next presidential election. Widespread concerns over the state of the economy, specifically inflation, have soured the national mood against the president. Only 13% of American voters said the country was on the right track- the lowest point in New York Times polling since the Great Recession. Furthermore, 64% of Democrats said they would prefer a different candidate in 2024. Biden has repeatedly stated he intends to run for re-election, but at age 79, concerns over his age ranked as the primary motive for why Democrats want an alternative.
- Nearly half of Republicans plan to vote for someone other than former President Donald Trump in the 2024 Republican primaries. Only 49% of likely Republican primary voters said they would vote for Trump if the primary were held today. Florida Governor Ron DeSantis received 25%, followed by Sen. Ted Cruz at 7%, former Vice-President Mike Pence at 6%, former South Carolina Governor and U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley at 6%, and finally former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo at 2%. 64% of primary voters under the age of 35 said they would vote against Trump, as well as 65% of those with at least a college degree. Notably, Trump’s share of the Republican primary electorate is less than Hillary Clinton’s among Democrats at the start of the 2016 race.
- Fox News released their U.S. House forecast model for the 2022 midterms. The GOP is forecast to take 225 seats to the Democrats’ 180 seats. 30 seats are rated as “toss up”. The size of the GOP’s majority will depend on how many of these highly competitive “toss up” races each party wins. Fox News’ forecast gives Republicans a best-case scenario of 255 seats in the U.S. House (a 37-seat majority), and a worst-case scenario of 225 seats (still a seven-seat majority).
Upcoming Elections
| Tues July 19 | Maryland Primary |
| MS State House 119 Special General | |
| Tues July 26 | Charlotte, NC mayoral general (rescheduled from 2021) |
| Greensboro, NC mayoral general (rescheduled from 2021) | |
| Tues Aug 2 | Arizona Primary |
| Kansas Primary | |
| KS No Right to Abortion in Constitutional Amendment | |
| Michigan Primary | |
| Missouri Primary | |
| Ohio State Legislative Primaries | |
| Washington Primary | |
| Thurs Aug 4 | Tennessee Primary |